TLDR:
• UAE eyes revived F-35 deal
• Trump authorised original $23bn sale
• UAE prioritises regional security goals
ABU DHABI (The Thursday Times) — The United Arab Emirates may seek to rekindle a significant arms deal with the United States if Donald Trump returns to the White House in 2024. Signed in the final days of his first term, the $23 billion deal involved cutting-edge F-35 stealth fighters and MQ-9 Reaper drones, marking a critical advancement in the UAE’s defence portfolio. The UAE, a strategic US ally in the Gulf region, suspended talks after struggling to align with the Biden administration on terms, citing operational sovereignty concerns, despite Washington’s willingness to negotiate further.
UAE’s bid for advanced air power
A potential resurgence of the F-35 fighter jet and drone deal with the United States highlights the UAE’s commitment to expanding its military capabilities. As one of the few Middle Eastern countries closely allied with the US, Abu Dhabi sees advanced fighter jets like the F-35 as a critical component for countering regional threats. However, under Biden, terms failed to align due to concerns around operational restrictions and broader security considerations, leaving the deal in limbo. Abu Dhabi’s military priorities remain clear, with officials emphasising the need for tools that bolster both defence and regional stability.
Trump’s diplomatic legacy and arms sales
The original F-35 deal approval in 2021 underscored Trump’s diplomatic achievements, following the Abraham Accords that formalised UAE-Israel relations. This agreement marked a new chapter, as the UAE became the most prominent Arab state to openly recognise Israel, securing a foothold for advanced US technology. Trump’s team underscored “peace through strength,” a narrative supporting US allies in the Gulf region. Observers note that a potential revival could reiterate this message, particularly under a re-elected Trump administration, which may be more amenable to UAE defence aspirations.
Biden administration’s hesitance and UAE response
With Biden in office, efforts to continue the F-35 sale have encountered significant headwinds. Washington has shown reluctance due to concerns surrounding technology security and its preference to maintain Israel’s military edge. Although Biden’s team has left the door open, they also highlighted conditions the UAE viewed as encroachments on its operational autonomy. Emirati officials have responded by diversifying military partnerships, including closer engagements with China, even as their relations with the US remain strategically crucial.
Israel’s regional influence and UAE’s military vision
As the only other regional F-35 operator, Israel’s influence over Middle Eastern arms sales adds a unique dynamic to the UAE’s ambitions. Despite Israeli assurances of no opposition to the deal, Washington remains cautious. The UAE’s defence strategy has subsequently embraced other sources, such as France, through additional fighter jet procurements like the Mirage 2000-9 and Rafale. However, the prospect of acquiring US stealth technology persists, as the UAE underscores its commitment to sophisticated defensive capabilities while promoting peace and cooperation.
Strategic partnerships and China’s growing footprint
The F-35 deal is just one dimension of a broader UAE security strategy that balances its alliances. Recently, the UAE deepened military cooperation with China, reflecting Abu Dhabi’s multi-aligned approach. With Chinese technology and defence systems already integrated into its infrastructure, the UAE maintains an intricate balance, aligning with Western partners while advancing ties with Beijing. This multifaceted approach underscores a nuanced stance in a rapidly evolving geopolitical landscape.
