NEW YORK (THE THURSDAY TIMES) — With hours left before polls close, prediction markets have all but declared Zohran Mamdani the overwhelming favourite in the New York City mayoral race. According to Polymarket, Mamdani currently holds a 95% chance of winning, far outpacing rival Andrew Cuomo, who stands at just 5%.
New York mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani cast his vote on election day alongside his wife, marking a significant moment in his campaign as he joined fellow New Yorkers at the polls to decide the city’s future. pic.twitter.com/uFn0SZdKXx
— The Thursday Times (@thursday_times) November 4, 2025
The data, based on more than $128 million in trading volume, reflects an extraordinary surge for Mamdani’s campaign, which began as a grassroots movement promising to make the country’s most expensive city more affordable and equitable. In contrast, Cuomo’s once-strong recognition has failed to convert into market confidence, slipping steadily since mid-summer.
source: polymarket.com
Eric Adams and Curtis Sliwa, both previous mayoral contenders, have seen their market odds fall below 1%, signalling a near consensus on Mamdani’s victory. Traders and analysts suggest that his consistent messaging, strong volunteer base, and focus on rent control, public transport, and housing affordability have driven both voter enthusiasm and investor confidence.
Polymarket’s real-time analytics have become a closely watched indicator of political momentum, with Mamdani’s line on the chart showing a steady rise since July, while his competitors’ odds have sharply declined.
If the predictions hold, Zohran Mamdani is poised to not only make history in New York’s political landscape but also redefine progressive urban politics across the United States.
