TLDR:
Harris leads in battleground polls
Trump narrowly favoured in swing states
Outcome hinges on key forecasts
WASHINGTON, D.C. (The Thursday Times) — Polls and forecasts indicate an incredibly tight race as Americans head to the polls on Election Day. Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump have both delivered their final campaign messages in crucial battleground states. Harris, hoping to make history, has faced an electorate split by sharp contrasts in ideology and priorities. Trump’s base remains strong despite legal challenges, with his focus on states that proved decisive in past elections.
Both candidates made high-stakes campaign stops, each with an eye on Pennsylvania’s 19 electoral votes. Harris held a major rally there, underscoring the state’s significance, while Trump made his final appeal in Michigan. The contest, layered with social, economic, and legal complexities, comes after a relentless campaign season.
Polling data
Polls on the eve of the election offer a snapshot of a divided electorate. AtlasIntel reported Trump leading Harris by a razor-thin margin. Their survey of likely voters suggested a narrow contest, which other polls reflect in varying forms. The NPR/PBS News/Marist survey, however, favoured Harris, giving her a four-point advantage nationally, a statistically significant margin beyond error levels. Reuters/Ipsos put Harris up by a slight edge, reflecting volatile voter sentiments influenced by national issues and local factors.
ABC News/Ipsos captured a similarly slim lead for Harris, though the TIPP Insights poll leant towards Trump, reflecting the election’s unpredictable nature. Emerson College Polling called it a dead heat, an emblem of the country’s political divide. With forecasts wavering between Harris’ slim national leads and Trump’s unexpected strength in swing states, the outcome appears uncertain.
Forecast models
Various forecasting models present a complex electoral picture. FiveThirtyEight, a model rooted in statistics, suggested a neck-and-neck race, simulating thousands of scenarios. The model’s latest forecast on Election Day indicated Harris barely securing enough Electoral College votes to win. Yet, Decision Desk HQ painted Trump as the frontrunner, giving him a slight advantage with his performance predicted to breach the so-called blue wall.
Real Clear Polling’s map showed Trump winning key battlegrounds, with Harris struggling to hold back a Republican advance. Political analyst Nate Silver hinted at fluctuating odds in recent days, his projections shifting based on voter sentiment data. Even The Economist’s forecast model presented Harris with only a narrow path to victory.
Swing states
Swing states will once again be the ultimate deciders. Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin appear close but lean towards Harris, according to New York Times/Siena College data. Trump’s leads in Arizona and neck-and-neck contests in Michigan and Georgia highlight regional dynamics. Pennsylvania’s unpredictable electorate remains key, its history of swinging between parties ensuring its status as a kingmaker. The campaigns’ strategic visits here underscore its monumental role in the election outcome.
A pivotal election
This election marks a momentous point in American history. Harris’ candidacy as a woman of colour would break barriers unseen in the nation’s highest office, while Trump’s potential return, despite his legal battles, highlights the resilience of his political influence. Both campaigns have faced unique challenges, from economic debates to legal and societal questions that may shape voter behaviour. Election watchers see this as a contest for the American soul, split between visions of change and restoration.