JERUSALEM (The Thursday Times) — Polls in Israel’s general election close at 10pm local time (1am Wednesday in Pakistan), but a final answer to whether Benjamin Netanyahu keeps power may take days or even weeks. Here is what happens next.
Exit polls at 10pm
Israel’s main television channels, the public broadcaster Kan 11, Channel 12 and Channel 13, release exit polls as voting ends, projecting how many of the Knesset’s 120 seats each party will win. Anyone still queuing at 10pm can vote. Exit polls have missed by a few seats in past elections, and with polls showing a tight race between Netanyahu’s Likud-led bloc and the alliance of former army chief Gadi Eisenkot, a few seats could decide who can form a government.
The count
The Central Elections Committee counts through the night, and most votes are usually in by Wednesday. So-called double-envelope ballots, cast by soldiers, diplomats, prisoners and hospital patients, are counted later, and official final results are usually published about a week after the vote.
A party needs 3.25 per cent of the vote to enter the Knesset. Parties that fall short lose their votes entirely, which can tip the balance between the two blocs. Turnout reached 66.7 per cent by 6pm, the highest in decades, so the number of votes needed to clear the threshold has gone up.
Who forms the government?
A government needs the support of at least 61 members. Once results are final, President Isaac Herzog consults every party in the new Knesset on whom they recommend as prime minister, then asks the candidate he judges most likely to succeed to form a coalition. That candidate has 28 days, which can be extended by up to 14 more. If they fail, the president can turn to another member, and if no one can form a government, Israel heads for another election. Netanyahu stays on as caretaker prime minister in the meantime.
The scenarios
If Netanyahu’s bloc reaches 61 seats, he is likely to form another government with the far-right leaders Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich. If it falls short, Eisenkot would need partners across the centre and right; he has ruled out Arab parties, but analysts see a scenario in which they back a minority government from outside. A deadlock could send Israel back to the polls again, after five elections between 2019 and 2022. Netanyahu spent the day accusing Arab citizens of trying to “steal” the vote.
