JERUSALEM (The Thursday Times) — Israel ke aam intikhabat mein polling maqami waqt ke mutabiq raat 10 baje (Pakistan mein Budh ki subah 1 baje) band hogi, lekin Benjamin Netanyahu iqtidar mein rehte hain ya nahin, is ka aakhri jawab milne mein kai din, balke hafte bhi lag sakte hain. Aage kya hoga, woh yeh hai.
Raat 10 baje exit polls
Israel ke bare television channels, public broadcaster Kan 11, Channel 12 aur Channel 13, voting khatam hote hi exit polls jari karte hain, jin mein andaza lagaya jata hai ke Knesset ki 120 nashiston mein se har jamaat kitni nashistein jeetegi. Raat 10 baje bhi jo shakhs qatar mein khara ho, woh vote daal sakta hai. Pichhle intikhabat mein exit polls ne chand nashiston se ghalat andaza lagaya hai, aur raye shumari kaante ke muqabla dikha rahi hai Netanyahu ke Likud ki qiyadat wale bloc aur sabiq army chief Gadi Eisenkot ke ittehad ke darmiyan, is liye chand nashistein tai kar sakti hain ke hukumat kaun bana sakta hai.
Ginti
Central Elections Committee raat bhar ginti karti hai, aur zyada tar vote aam taur par Budh tak gine ja chuke hote hain. Nam nihad double-envelope ballots, jo sipahi, sifaratkar, qaidi aur aspatal ke mareez daalte hain, baad mein gine jate hain, aur sarkari aakhri nateeje aam taur par vote ke taqreeban aik hafte baad jari kiye jate hain.
Knesset mein dakhil hone ke liye kisi jamaat ko 3.25% vote darkar hote hain. Jo jamaatein is se kam rah jayein, un ke tamam vote zaya ho jate hain, jis se donon blocs ka tawazun badal sakta hai. Shaam 6 baje tak turnout 66.7% tak pahunch gaya, jo kai dahaiyon mein sab se zyada hai, is liye hadd paar karne ke liye darkar votes ki tadad barh gayi hai.
Hukumat kaun banata hai?
Hukumat banane ke liye kam se kam 61 arkan ki himayat zaroori hai. Nateeje final hone ke baad, Sadr Isaac Herzog nayi Knesset ki har jamaat se mashwara karte hain ke woh wazir-e-azam ke liye kis ki sifarish karti hai, phir us ummeedwar se, jise woh kamyabi ke sab se zyada imkan wala samajhte hain, ittehadi hukumat banane ko kehte hain. Us ummeedwar ke paas 28 din hote hain, jin mein mazeed 14 din tak ka izafa kiya ja sakta hai. Agar woh nakam rahe, toh sadr kisi doosre rukn se rujoo kar sakte hain, aur agar koi bhi hukumat na bana saka toh Israel aik aur election ki taraf jata hai. Is dauran Netanyahu nigran wazir-e-azam ke taur par barqarar rehte hain.
Mumkina manzarnaame
Agar Netanyahu ka ittehad 61 nashistein hasil kar le, toh imkan hai ke woh intehai daen bazu ke rahnumaon Itamar Ben-Gvir aur Bezalel Smotrich ke saath mil kar aik aur hukumat banayein. Agar yeh ittehad is se kam raha, toh Eisenkot ko markaz aur daen bazu mein ittehadi darkar honge; unhon ne Arab jamaaton ko khaarij az imkan qarar diya hai, lekin tajziya kaaron ko aik aisi soorat nazar aati hai jis mein woh bahar se aqliyati hukumat ki himayat karein. Deadlock Israel ko aik baar phir election ki taraf dhakel sakta hai, 2019 aur 2022 ke darmiyan paanch elections ke baad. Netanyahu ne poora din Arab shehriyon par vote "chori" karne ki koshish ka ilzam lagane mein guzara.
