WASHINGTON (The Thursday Times) — World Bank ne Budh ko kaha hai ke Middle East ki jang se tawanai ki farahmi aur jahazrani mein paida hone wale khalal ke bais is saal ajnas ki aalami qeematon mein 23% izafa hoga, aur us ne mehngai barhne, ghizai adam tahaffuz ke gehra hone aur maashi taraqqi ki raftar sust parne se khabardar kiya.
Bank ne saal mein do baar jari hone wali apni Commodity Markets Outlook mein kaha ke 2026 mein tawanai ki qeematein 32% barh kar 2022 mein Ukraine par Russia ke hamle ke baad ki sab se oonchi sateh par pahunch gayi hain, dhaton ki qeematon mein 25% aur mehfooz panahgah ke taur par khareede jane wale sone ki qeemat mein 40% izafa hua hai. Is saal Brent crude ki ausat qeemat 92 dollar fi barrel rehne ki tawaqqo hai.
"Ajnas ki mandiyon ko aik hi waqt mein kai bare jhatke lag rahe hain," World Bank ke deputy chief economist Ayhan Kose ne kaha. "Tawanai ke barhte akhrajat aur tijarati rukawatein ajnas ki wasee range mein qeematein barha rahi hain, jis se mehngai, ghizai adam tahaffuz aur maashi taraqqi ke mazeed bigarne ka khatra hai."
Chaar dahaiyon mein rasad ki sab se bari kami
Bank ne kaha ke 2026 mein tel ki aalami rasad mein 5.2% kami ki peshgoi hai, jo 2020 ki kasad bazari ko chhor kar chaar dahaiyon ki sab se bari kami hogi, aur jang ke dauran tel ke zakhair kam ho gaye hain, jis se aalami maeeshat rasad ke naye jhatkon ke samne zyada ghair mehfooz ho gayi hai. Agar is saal tel ki talab mein 2.5% kami mutawaqqa na hoti toh qeematein is se bhi zyada hotin, aur yeh Covid ke jhatke aur 1980 ke tel buhran ke baad teesri sab se bari kami hogi.
Black Sea mein ghalle ki tarseel mein khalal ke bais is saal ghizai ajnas ki qeematon mein 10% se kuch zyada izafa mutawaqqa hai. Bank ne kaha ke agle saal majmooi taur par qeematon mein 7% kami aani chahiye, lekin khabardar kiya ke 1950 ke baad ka badtareen El Niño ghizai qeematon ko buland rakh sakta hai, aur Middle East mein kasheedgi barhne ya Russia ke tel ke bunyadi dhanche ko mazeed nuqsan se halat aur kharab ho sakte hain.
Shadeed mutasira mamalik ke liye imdad
Bank ne kaha ke woh Middle East ki jang se mutasira 25 mamalik ko kam lagat qarzon aur deegar imdad ki soorat mein pehle hi 8.7 arab dollar faraham kar chuka hai. Yeh report G20 ke wuzra-e-kharja ke Atlanta mein ijlas se do din pehle samne aayi hai, jis mein Middle East aur Ukraine ki jangon par baat hogi.
Pakistan mein fuel ki qeematein February mein jang shuru hone se pehle ki sateh se 40% se zyada hain, aur hukumat ab unhein rozana tai karti hai. Jumerat se petrol aur diesel ki qeematon mein phir izafa hua, aur diesel Rs400 fi litre ke qareeb pahunch gaya.
