DHAKA (The Thursday Times) — Bain-ul-aqwami Mali Fund ki taza peshgoiyon ke mutabiq, Bangladesh is saal maeeshati paidawar mein har fard ke hisab se India se aage nikalne wala hai, halanke India ki maeeshat taqreeban 8 guna bari hai aur taqreeban doguni raftar se barh rahi hai.
IMF ki October 2026 ki World Economic Outlook mein is saal Bangladesh ki fi kas GDP 2,886 dollar, jabke India ki 2,749 dollar rehne ka andaza lagaya gaya hai. Bangladesh, jahan taqreeban 17 crore 50 lakh log aabad hain, mein is saal 506.4 arab dollar ki ashya aur khidmat paida hone ki tawaqqo hai, jabke India ki paidawar 4,150 arab dollar hogi.
Aisi sabqat jo shayad qaim na rahe
IMF ko tawaqqo hai ke Bangladesh 2027 mein fi kas 3,219 dollar ke saath, India ke 3,036 dollar ke muqable mein, mamooli sabqat par rahega, aur 2028 mein bhi aik baar phir mamooli sabqat par hoga. 2029 tak India ke 3,661 dollar ke saath, Bangladesh ke 3,334 dollar ke muqable mein, dobara aage aa jane ki peshgoi hai.
India ke is saal 7% barhne ka andaza hai, jabke Bangladesh ke liye yeh 3.6% hai, aur mehngai ki shara India mein 5% jabke Bangladesh mein 8.7% rehne ki peshgoi hai, jo Dhaka mein rozmarra akhrajat ke zyada shadeed dabao ki alamat hai.
Quwat-e-kharid ki barabri ke hisab se, jo maqami qeematon ke farq ko shamil karti hai, tarteeb ulat jati hai: India ki fi kas GDP 12,998 dollar, jabke Bangladesh ki 10,884 dollar rehne ka andaza hai. Donon taraqqi pazeer maeeshaton ke dollar ke hisab se taqreeban 7,746 dollar ke ausat aur taqreeban 15,889 dollar ke aalami ausat se bohat neeche hain.
Karkhane aur tarseelat-e-zar
Bangladesh ki taraqqi ki bunyad us ki taqreeban 38 arab dollar ki garment industry, bairoon-e-mulk karkunon ki tarseelat-e-zar aur afradi quwwat mein zyada khawateen ke shamil hone par rakhi gayi hai. Bharti maeeshatdan Santosh Mehrotra ne Al Jazeera ko bataya ke Bangladesh ki kul izafi qadr mein manufacturing ka hissa 2014 mein 16.6% se barh kar 2025 mein 22% ho gaya. World Bank ke aadad-o-shumar ke mutabiq India ki GDP mein manufacturing ka hissa taqreeban isi muddat mein 15.1% se ghat kar 13.5% reh gaya.
"Yeh export-oriented manufacturing growth ka woh musbat pehlu hai jise Bangladesh theek tarah apna raha hai," Mehrotra ne kaha.
Lekin Iran par jang se paida hone wale energy shock aur Strait of Hormuz se guzarne wali shipping mein rukawat ne Bangladesh ko bohat sakht nuqsan pahunchaya hai. Yeh mulk apni zaroorat ka 95% tel aur liquefied natural gas daraamad karta hai, jis ka bara hissa Middle East se aata hai, aur garments, jin se export ki 80% se zyada aamdani hoti hai, Red Sea se guzarne wale shipping routes mein rukawat se mutasir hue hain.
Fi kas GDP yeh bhi chhupa deti hai ke aamdani kaise taqseem hoti hai, aur chunke yeh dollar mein napi jati hai, is liye exchange rates mein tabdeeli se rankings badal sakti hain, jabke kisi bhi maeeshat ki paidawar mein koi tabdeeli nahin aati.
