DHAKA (The Thursday Times) — Bangladesh is set to overtake India in economic output per person this year, according to the International Monetary Fund’s latest forecasts, even though India’s economy is about eight times larger and growing almost twice as fast.
The IMF’s October 2026 World Economic Outlook projects Bangladesh’s GDP per capita at $2,886 this year, against $2,749 for India. Bangladesh, home to about 175 million people, is expected to produce $506.4 billion in goods and services, compared with India’s $4.15 trillion.
A lead that may not last
The IMF expects Bangladesh to stay narrowly ahead in 2027, at $3,219 per person against India’s $3,036, and marginally ahead again in 2028. By 2029, India is forecast to move back in front, at $3,661 against $3,334.
India is projected to grow by 7% this year, against 3.6% for Bangladesh, while inflation is forecast at 5% in India and 8.7% in Bangladesh, a sign of heavier cost-of-living pressure in Dhaka.
Adjusted for purchasing power parity, which accounts for differences in local prices, the order reverses: India’s GDP per person is projected at $12,998, against $10,884 for Bangladesh. Both remain far below the developing-economy average of about $7,746 in dollar terms, and the global average of about $15,889.
Factories and remittances
Bangladesh’s rise has been built on its roughly $38 billion garment industry, remittances from workers abroad and more women joining the workforce. Indian economist Santosh Mehrotra told Al Jazeera that manufacturing’s share of Bangladesh’s gross value added rose from 16.6% in 2014 to 22% in 2025. World Bank data shows India’s manufacturing share of GDP falling from 15.1% to 13.5% over roughly the same period.
“That’s a positive side of export-oriented manufacturing growth that Bangladesh is getting right,” Mehrotra said.
But the energy shock from the war on Iran and the disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has hit Bangladesh hard. The country imports 95% of its oil and liquefied natural gas, much of it from the Middle East, and garments, which earn more than 80% of its export income, have been hit by disrupted shipping routes through the Red Sea.
GDP per capita also hides how income is shared out, and because it is measured in dollars, changes in exchange rates can shift the rankings without any change in what either economy produces.
