DUBAI (The Thursday Times) — HSBC Group chief executive Georges Elhedery has said the Strait of Hormuz could become “redundant” within five years, as Gulf states accelerate investment in alternative energy export routes in response to the war involving Iran.
Speaking at the HSBC Future Forum in Dubai, Elhedery said the conflict would drive significant investment across the region as governments sought to reduce their reliance on the strategic waterway and protect energy exports from future disruption. “We do see this region being able to recover and then continue growing. It will mean a lot of investment,” he said. “Of course, we do wish and hope to see a resolution to the conflict… But Hormuz, probably in five years’ time, may become redundant.”
The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow shipping corridor through which around a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas trade previously passed, has become a focal point of concern during the conflict, underscoring the global economy’s dependence on it. The UAE already has an alternative route through its Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline, which carries crude to Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman, bypassing Hormuz entirely. Saudi Arabia can redirect oil through its East-West pipeline to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, while Oman’s ports offer further options outside the strait. Elhedery suggested that expanding such infrastructure could reshape the Gulf’s energy network over the next five years, though existing pipelines currently carry only a fraction of the volumes that normally transit Hormuz.
The remarks came as HSBC published a report on Monday showing the Middle East, North Africa and Turkey have $872 billion in individual project packages available for investment, part of a wider $1.4 trillion pipeline of planned infrastructure projects yet to be awarded, based on data from the Dubai-based construction intelligence platform MEED. HSBC said a survey of more than 1,600 business leaders and around 820 global institutional investors found respondents still regarded the Gulf as an attractive investment destination despite the conflict.
The economic consequences are nonetheless mounting. After growth of 3.3 per cent in 2025, the World Bank forecasts the Middle East, North Africa and Pakistan region will contract by 1.3 per cent in 2026, with a strong but uneven recovery expected in 2027. The conflict has also disrupted the region’s investment calendar: Saudi Arabia’s flagship Future Investment Initiative conference, which Elhedery had been expected to attend, has been postponed until 2027 following deadly Houthi strikes on Riyadh.∎
