ISLAMABAD (The Thursday Times) — Artificial intelligence could reshape Pakistan’s labour market, with 61% of service-sector workers employed in jobs with above-median exposure to the technology, the World Bank said in an assessment released alongside its latest Pakistan Development Update.
The report, titled Job Opportunities and AI in Pakistan, found that the country’s average occupational exposure to AI in 2024 stood 0.48 standard deviations below the global median, broadly in line with other emerging markets and developing economies. But that average masks a sharp divide between sectors: AI’s impact will vary significantly across the economy, with services facing the greatest exposure and agriculture largely insulated for now.
A sharp divide between sectors
While 61% of service-sector workers are in highly exposed occupations, the comparable shares are just 7% in manufacturing, 5% in other industrial sectors and less than 1% in agriculture, the Bank found. Wholesale and retail trade, financial and insurance activities, real estate and education are among the service subsectors where more than 80% of workers are in highly AI-exposed jobs.
Workers in highly AI-exposed jobs, by sector
Source: World Bank, Job Opportunities and AI in Pakistan, 2024 data.
Exposure doesn’t mean job losses
The report stresses that exposure to AI does not necessarily mean workers will lose their jobs, since the technology can also complement human skills and raise productivity. It distinguishes between occupations where AI could assist workers and those where it could substitute for them: in 2024, about 18% of employed workers in Pakistan were in jobs with both high AI exposure and high human-AI complementarity, suggesting scope for AI-assisted productivity gains, while only 8% were in highly exposed jobs with low complementarity, where the Bank said the risk of displacement is greater.
Real estate and education were found to be dominated by complementary exposure, pointing to productivity gains rather than job losses. Wholesale and retail trade, by contrast, combines a large workforce with high exposure and a significant share of substitutable jobs, making it a sector to watch closely as AI adoption spreads.
The Bank noted that a sector’s overall impact depends on how many people work in it, not just its exposure level: agriculture, which employs a large share of Pakistan’s workforce, remains overwhelmingly in low-exposure occupations, limiting AI’s immediate effect there even as the technology may still help raise farm productivity.
Depends on adoption and skills
The World Bank cautioned that AI’s ultimate effect on Pakistan’s labour market will depend on how quickly businesses and workers adopt the technology, and on the availability of relevant skills and complementary investment. It said the findings point to a need to prepare workers for changing job requirements while helping businesses use AI to raise productivity.∎
