Trump may order major Iran strike if Republicans lose in midterms, Axios reports, as Qatar presses talks in Tehran

A US official told Axios that Trump could ‘do something bold’ if embarrassed at the polls, as Qatari mediators reported ‘positive progress’ after 12 hours of talks in Tehran; the White House denied any link.

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Qatar prime minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani gestures as he speaks
Qatar’s Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani. File photo. — JAKOB POLACSEK/WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM/DPA

— US President Donald Trump may be more willing to order a large-scale military operation against Iran if his Republicans fare badly in next Tuesday’s midterm elections, Axios reported on Friday, as Qatari mediators spent more than 12 hours in Tehran trying to revive direct talks.

“If he feels embarrassed or disenfranchised, he will do something bold,” a US official told Axios, adding that the message was being relayed to Iranian officials, who were being told their best chance of a deal was now. A White House official rejected the idea, saying election results would not factor into Trump’s decisions on Iran.

The Qatari delegation stayed in regular contact with the White House during Friday’s talks in Tehran, and a diplomatic source described “positive progress”, according to the report. Discussions were due to continue in Doha on Saturday, with Qatar urging Iran to let UN inspectors into its bombed nuclear sites in exchange for limited sanctions relief.

The talks remain stuck on competing demands. Washington wants nuclear concessions before any return to negotiations, while Tehran insists the US first lift its naval blockade, release frozen funds and allow oil sales. The report described a split in Trump’s circle, with Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth and Secretary of State Marco Rubio sceptical of a deal, and Vice President JD Vance and envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner backing a return to talks.

The head of US Central Command has already briefed Trump on options for renewed strikes, while Iran this week claimed tanker explosions in the Strait of Hormuz. Pakistan, which is also mediating, says it is “cautiously optimistic” about the diplomacy.

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