JERUSALEM (The Thursday Times) — Opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot is on course to get the first chance to form Israel’s next government, with parties holding 60 seats expected to recommend him to President Isaac Herzog against 46 for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, according to the parties’ stated positions ahead of consultations that begin on Wednesday.
But the first shot may not mean much. Last week’s election left Netanyahu’s bloc on 53 seats, the Jewish-led opposition on 48 and two Arab parties on a record 19, with no side near the 61 needed for a majority in the 120-seat Knesset.
Who is expected to back whom
Eisenkot, 60 seats: his Yashar party (21), Naftali Bennett’s B’Yachad (12), the Joint List (11), Ra’am (8) and Yair Golan’s Democrats (8). The Arab parties have not formally announced their choice, but the Joint List’s Ahmad Tibi has said his party is prepared to recommend Eisenkot.
Netanyahu, 46 seats: his Likud (27), Itamar Ben-Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit (7), Shas (6) and Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionism (6).
Undecided, 14 seats: Avigdor Liberman’s Yisrael Beytenu (7) has rejected both Netanyahu and any government relying on Arab parties. “We will not sit with Bibi or with Tibi,” he has said. United Torah Judaism (7) is demanding a law on draft exemptions for yeshiva students and has not said whether it will recommend anyone.
How the process works
Election results are due to be formally presented to Herzog on November 4, the day he starts seeing party representatives. Those meetings could run into Friday. He must name a lawmaker to form a government by November 11, a day after the new Knesset is sworn in. He usually picks the candidate with the most recommendations, but that is not the only factor.
The candidate then has 28 days to build a coalition, with a possible 14-day extension. If that fails, Herzog can give a second lawmaker 28 days. After that, a majority of lawmakers can put forward a third candidate. If none succeeds, the Knesset is dissolved and Israel votes again. Netanyahu stays on as caretaker prime minister throughout, which could keep him in office for months.
Why no path is easy
An opposition government with Arab support: the anti-Netanyahu parties hold 67 seats between them, and thousands of Israelis rallied on Saturday for a Jewish-Arab coalition. But Liberman and Bennett reject relying on the Joint List, and Golan is the only Jewish opposition leader openly backing a coalition with Ra’am. Tibi says his party would support a replacement government from outside but not join it, while Ra’am’s Mansour Abbas has not ruled out either joining or backing one from outside.
Eisenkot’s conditions: he says the door is open to any lawmaker who accepts Israel as a Jewish, democratic state, the values of its Declaration of Independence, compulsory national service for all, and recognition of Hamas as a terror group whose capabilities in Gaza must be destroyed. Those terms are hard for the Arab parties and the ultra-Orthodox alike, though Abbas is reported to have said they would not be an obstacle for his party.
A unity government: Likud, Yashar and B’Yachad together hold 60 seats, one short of a majority. Eisenkot and Bennett campaigned on refusing to serve under Netanyahu, and Likud ruled out sharing the premiership on Sunday. “We oppose rotation, after the election results showed a high level of confidence in us,” coalition whip Ofir Katz said. “Whoever wants to can join the government on the basis of the existing coalition.”
Herzog told party leaders on Sunday to drop their campaign positions and find “creative solutions to prevent another election”. “Candidates naturally and predictably climb very tall trees. But the election is over,” he said. “This week, at the President’s Residence, we will try to set up ladders.”
