JERUSALEM (The Thursday Times) — Opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot ko Israel ki agli hukumat banane ka pehla mauqa milta nazar aa raha hai. Jamaaton ke bayan kiye gaye mauqif ke mutabiq, Budh se shuru hone wali mashawarat se pehle 60 seats rakhne wali jamaaton se tawaqqo hai ke woh Sadr Isaac Herzog ko un ke naam ki sifarish karengi, jab ke Wazir-e-Azam Benjamin Netanyahu ke liye 46 seats hain.
Lekin pehla mauqa shayad zyada ahmiyat na rakhe. Pichhle hafte ke intikhabat mein Netanyahu ke bloc ko 53 seats, Yahudi qiyadat wali opposition ko 48 aur do Arab jamaaton ko record 19 seats mili, aur koi bhi fareeq 120 seats wali Knesset mein aksariyat ke liye darkar 61 ke qareeb nahin hai.
Kis se kis ki himayat ki tawaqqo hai
Eisenkot, 60 seats: un ki Yashar party (21), Naftali Bennett ki B'Yachad (12), Joint List (11), Ra'am (8) aur Yair Golan ki Democrats (8). Bennett ne Itwar ko apni jamaat ki himayat ki tasdeeq ki. Arab jamaaton ne apni tarjeeh ka baqayada elan nahin kiya, lekin Joint List ke Ahmad Tibi keh chuke hain ke un ki jamaat Eisenkot ki sifarish karne ko tayyar hai.
Netanyahu, 46 seats: un ki Likud (27), Itamar Ben-Gvir ki Otzma Yehudit (7), Shas (6) aur Bezalel Smotrich ki Religious Zionism (6).
Jin ka faisla baqi hai, 14 seats: Avigdor Liberman ki Yisrael Beytenu (7) ne Netanyahu aur Arab jamaaton ke sahare qaim hone wali kisi bhi hukumat, donon ko mustarad kar diya hai. "Hum na Bibi ke saath baithenge aur na Tibi ke saath," unhon ne kaha hai. United Torah Judaism (7) yeshiva ke tulaba ke liye lazmi fauji bharti se istisna ke qanoon ka mutalba kar rahi hai aur us ne yeh nahin bataya ke woh kisi ki sifarish karegi ya nahin.
Yeh amal kaise kaam karta hai
Intikhabi nateeje 4 November ko baqayada taur par Herzog ke samne pesh kiye jane hain, yehi woh din hai jis din woh jamaaton ke numaindon se mulaqat shuru karenge. Yeh mulaqatein Juma tak jari reh sakti hain. Unhein naye Knesset ke halaf uthane ke aik din baad, 11 November tak, hukumat banane ke liye kisi rukn-e-parliament ka naam dena hoga. Woh aam taur par sab se zyada sifarishon wale ummeedwar ko chunte hain, lekin sirf yehi aik pehlu nahin hai.
Is ke baad ummeedwar ke paas ittehad banane ke liye 28 din hote hain, jis mein 14 din ke mumkina izafe ki gunjaish hai. Agar yeh nakam ho jaye, toh Herzog kisi doosre rukn-e-parliament ko 28 din de sakte hain. Is ke baad arakeen-e-parliament ki aksariyat teesra ummeedwar samne la sakti hai. Agar koi bhi kamyab na ho, toh Knesset tehleel kar di jati hai aur Israel mein dobara intikhabat hote hain. Is poore arse mein Netanyahu caretaker wazir-e-azam ke taur par barqarar rehte hain, jis ki wajah se woh kai maheenon tak iqtidar mein reh sakte hain.
Koi bhi rasta aasan kyun nahin
Arab himayat ke saath opposition ki hukumat: Netanyahu mukhalif jamaaton ke paas aapas mein 67 nashistein hain, aur Hafta ko hazaron Israeliyon ne Yahudi-Arab ittehad ke liye rally ki. Lekin Liberman aur Bennett Joint List par bharosa karne se inkar karte hain, aur Golan opposition ke waheed Yahudi rehnuma hain jo Ra’am ke saath ittehad ki khul kar himayat kar rahe hain. Tibi ka kehna hai ke un ki jamaat mutabadil hukumat ki bahar se himayat karegi lekin us mein shamil nahin hogi, jabke Ra’am ke Mansour Abbas ne is mein shamil hone ya bahar se is ki himayat karne, donon mein se kisi ko mustarad nahin kiya.
Eisenkot ki shartein: un ka kehna hai ke darwaza har us rukn-e-parliament ke liye khula hai jo Israel ko Yahudi aur jamhoori riyasat, Elan-e-Azadi ki aqdar aur sab ke liye lazmi qaumi khidmat tasleem karta ho, aur Hamas ko aisi dehshatgard tanzeem tasleem karta ho jis ki Gaza mein salahiyatein tabah ki jani chahiyein. Yeh shartein Arab jamaaton aur ultra-Orthodox, donon ke liye yaksan taur par mushkil hain, albatta bataya jata hai ke Abbas ne kaha hai ke yeh un ki jamaat ke liye rukawat nahin hongi.
Ittehad ki hukumat: Likud, Yashar aur B’Yachad ke paas mil kar 60 nashistein hain, jo aksariyat se aik kam hain. Eisenkot aur Bennett ne Netanyahu ke taht khidmat se inkar par intikhabi muhim chalayi, aur Likud ne Itwar ko wazir-e-azam ka uhda baantne ko mustarad kar diya. "Intikhabi nataij se hum par aitimad ki oonchi satah zahir hone ke baad hum rotation ke mukhalif hain," ittehad ke whip Ofir Katz ne kaha. "Jo bhi chahe maujooda ittehad ki bunyad par hukumat mein shamil ho sakta hai."
Herzog ne Itwar ko jamaaton ke rahnumaon se kaha ke woh apne intikhabi mauqif chhor dein aur "aik aur election ko rokne ke liye takhleeqi hal" talash karein. "Ummeedwar fitri taur par aur tawaqqo ke mutabiq bohat oonche darakhton par charh jate hain. Lekin election khatm ho chuka hai," unhon ne kaha. "Is hafta, Sadr ki rihaishgah mein, hum seedhiyan lagane ki koshish karenge."
