WASHINGTON (The Thursday Times) — Vice President JD Vance has given serious thought to not running for president in 2028 after the Republicans’ heavy losses in this month’s midterm elections, according to people close to him, though he has not made up his mind and a White House bid remains firmly on the table.
About a dozen of his allies and advisers describe a vice president weighing his ambitions against a fractured MAGA coalition, an unpopular war with Iran, and the demands of a young family. His fourth child was born this summer. Vance has set no timeline for a decision, and some allies insist he is still more likely than not to run.
“I wouldn’t be surprised by any decision he makes,” one person close to him said. “He’s only 42. He’s young enough that he can have a comeback should this environment make success impossible. It just may not be his time.”
The war question
Allies see the war with Iran, which the United States and Israel launched on February 28, as the biggest obstacle to a Vance campaign, and say much depends on whether President Donald Trump can bring it to a quick end. “If they don’t end the war in Iran, no Republican has a shot at 2028,” one ally said.
The morning after the November 3 vote, Vance posted a 617-word message on X that blamed the defeat on the war. “The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night,” he wrote, adding that “everyone knows why we lost” and that “any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there.” He also called for ending the war, tackling the cost of living, refocusing on problems at home, and reconsidering America’s relationship with Israel.
His supporters read the post as the outline of a possible campaign. It also irritated Trump, according to two people familiar with the matter, who said the president was angry that Vance had not publicly defended the decision to go to war. In public, Trump shrugged it off. “He was right, other than one thing,” he told reporters on Sunday. “He should have made one other statement: ‘If you had it to do again, would you do it again?’ The answer is yes.” A White House official said the president had been briefed before the post went out and “did not have any issues with it.”
On Thursday, Trump took Vance off the Iran negotiations, telling him to give his “complete and total attention” to corruption at home. Vance had led the US side in the talks, including the round hosted in Islamabad in April.
Trump has not said he would endorse his vice president. Vance has said he expects the president’s support if he runs, but Trump has told aides he wants to stay out of the primary for a while and watch how the candidates fare. Asked in a television interview whether he would eventually endorse someone, he said: “Probably — not necessarily.”
A field ‘blown open’
Other Republicans have already begun to move, among them Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, Texas Senator Ted Cruz, and Georgia Governor Brian Kemp. Vance’s allies say they are not worried, pointing out that a divided field helped Trump win the nomination in 2016 and 2024, and that two years is a long time in politics. Tucker Carlson, the conservative commentator, Trump critic, and close friend of Vance, has hinted at a third-party run.
Polls show that nearly every group that helped elect Trump in 2024 swung away from Republicans this year, including men, young voters, Latinos, and white voters without college degrees. “MAGA is dead,” said Rich Baris, a pollster close to the movement, who argued that Vance is still the Republican best placed to rebuild it but would have to make those voters “believe again.”
Terry Schilling, president of the American Principles Project, a social conservative group, said he would be surprised if Vance did not run, calling him “teed up to be the general.” But he acknowledged how much the contest has changed. “I do think the field has been blown open,” he said, “and there isn’t an heir apparent.”
If he does run, his allies say money will not be a problem. Vance spent the past year as finance chair of the Republican National Committee and has close ties to Elon Musk and Peter Thiel. A group of donors aligned with him, the Rockbridge Network, met in Houston this week to regroup while they wait for his decision, according to a person familiar with the meeting. Stephen Miller, a Trump loyalist seen as sharing Vance’s priorities, was promoted to White House chief of staff this week.
