RIYADH (The Thursday Times) — Moody's ne apne taaza tareen aalmi maashi jaize mein kaha hai ke Saudi Arab ki maeeshat is saal 2.8 feesad sikadne ka imkaan hai, jis ke baad 2027 mein 5.1 feesad aur 2028 mein 6 feesad shar-e-numu ke saath bahali mutawaqqe hai, basharte ke mumlikat ki tel ki paidawar aur baramdaat batadreej bahal hon.
Rating agency ka is saal ka takhmeena us 1.8 feesad sukdao se zyada mayoos kun hai jis ki peshgoi OECD ne September mein mumlikat ke liye ki thi.
Moody's ka kehna hai ke Khaleej Taawun Council ki maeeshatein America, Israel aur Iran ke darmiyan jang ke asraat ki khaas taur par zad mein hain, bilkhusoos woh mulk jin ke paas Aabnae Hormuz ko bypass karne wali pipelines ke zariye tel aur gas bhejne ki mehdood salahiyat hai.
Agency ke mutabiq hukoomati muawanat ne ghair-tel sargarmiyon ko jaari rakhne mein madad di hai, lekin jang ne khitte ke istehkaam ke us taassur ko nuqsan pohanchaya hai jo Khaleej ko ghair mulki sarmaya kari aur sayyahon ki taraf raghib karne mein madadgar raha tha. Agency ka kehna hai ke jang ko nau maah guzarne ke baad bhi us ke fauri ya paedaar hal ke imkanaat ghair yaqeeni hain.
Moody's ko tawaqqo hai ke 2027 mein Brent khaam tel ki ausat qeemat 90 dollar fi barrel rahegi, jise geo-siyasi khatraat ke buland premium aur khatam hote zakhair ko dobara bharne ki zaroorat sahara degi. Agency ke mutabiq kasheedgi kam hone ki soorat mein bhi yeh awamil qeematon ko buland rakhenge.
Agency ne azad takhmeenon ka hawala dete hue kaha ke Aabnae Hormuz ke raaste tel aur refined masnoo-aat ki baramdaat jang se pehle ki satah ke taqreeban do tihai tak bahal ho gayi hain, agarche un ka bahao ab bhi intehai ghair mustehkam hai. Agency ne naam nihaad “dark fleet” ki sargarmiyon mein izafe ki nishandahi bhi ki, jin mein tanker apne transponder band kar ke Omani rahdari se tel le ja rahe hain, aur ittelaat ke mutabiq unhein Amriki fauji hifazat haasil hai.
Moody's ke mutabiq Iran ne junoobi raaste ke khatraat aur akhrajaat badhane aur aabi guzargah par apna control dobara jatane ke liye behri jahazon par hamle tez kar diye hain, aur October ke pehle teen hafton mein jang ke aaghaz ke baad kisi bhi musawi arse se zyada hamle hue. Tankeron ke kiraye aur jangi khatraat ke insurance premium mein tezi se izafa hua hai. Agency ka kehna hai ke baaz dinon mein jab jahaz Omani rahdari se guzarne ke liye jama hote hain to aamad-o-raft jang se pehle ki satah ke qareeb pohanch jaati hai, jabke baaz dinon mein taqreeban ruk jaati hai.
Ubharti hui mandiyon se mutalliq aik alag jaize mein Moody's ne Muttahida Arab Emarat ko 8.2 feesad ki mutawaqqe taraqqi ke saath 2027 ki shar-e-numu ki fehrist mein sar-e-fehrist rakha, jo 7 feesad ke saath Bharat aur Vietnam aur 5.1 feesad ke saath Saudi Arab aur Misr se aage hai. Agency ke mutabiq dono Khaleeji riyasatein data centres aur deegar digital infrastructure ki tauseeh ke marhale mein daakhil ho chuki hain.
Yeh jaiza usi hafte saamne aaya hai jab Fitch ne Jumme ko Muttahida Arab Emarat ki rating AA- par barqarar rakhne ka faisla kiya, jabke peshgoi ki ke is saal us ki ghair-tel maeeshat sikdegi. Bain-ul-aqwami Tawanai Agency ne Jumeraat ko kaha tha ke Khaleeji baramdaat ki bahali ke saath aalmi tel ki mandi dobara surplus mein aa gayi hai.
