TLDR:
Western allies divided on Ukraine peace
Scholz’s call with Putin stirs tensions
Trump’s plans signal uncertain future
LONDON (The Thursday Times) — As Donald Trump prepares to assume the U.S. presidency, a new wave of diplomatic uncertainty is sweeping through Western capitals. European leaders are bracing for a potential shift in the Ukraine conflict, with Germany’s recent call to Russian President Vladimir Putin marking a break in NATO’s approach. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s outreach to Putin comes amid growing speculation that Trump’s administration may push for peace talks—a development sparking mixed reactions across Europe and Ukraine.
Scholz’s phone call with Putin, intended to test diplomatic waters, has already caused discord among Ukraine’s allies. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky expressed frustration, noting the move could weaken the isolation of Moscow just as Ukraine gains access to long-range U.S. missiles. Poland’s Prime Minister, Donald Tusk, warned that “telephone diplomacy” with Putin would be insufficient to deter Russian aggression, underscoring calls for unwavering support.
The timing of Scholz’s call may have been influenced by domestic German politics, analysts suggest. With German elections looming, Scholz is navigating a complex political landscape, where a pro-peace stance could attract voters with Moscow-leaning sentiments. This apparent election strategy, however, risks alienating Ukraine’s staunch supporters within NATO, particularly as Trump’s pending inauguration raises questions about the West’s unified stance on the conflict.
Scholz’s approach reflects a calculated attempt to position himself as a mediator, yet the move has stirred unease. French President Emmanuel Macron, who remains vocal about his unwavering support for Ukraine, signalled disapproval, while NATO allies fear Trump’s “peace through strength” philosophy could result in concessions to Russia that would jeopardize Ukraine’s sovereignty.
Trump’s ambiguous approach
Trump’s public statements about ending the war “within a day” have fuelled both hope and apprehension. Many allies remain unsure of how his administration will approach Ukraine, given his history of friendly gestures toward Putin. Appointments of China hawks like Mike Waltz as national security adviser signal a potentially strategic pivot, though Trump’s actual policy remains opaque. Analysts suggest Trump might favour a lend-lease program for Ukraine over direct aid, encouraging Kyiv to strengthen its defences independently.
This uncertainty extends to NATO, where officials are weighing potential impacts on security commitments in Eastern Europe. Former U.S. envoy Kurt Volker believes Trump’s strategy will involve projecting strength to deter Putin, avoiding a repeat of perceived missteps in Afghanistan. Yet Trump’s diplomatic style, known for downplaying adversarial relationships, suggests he may pursue a settlement that could freeze current front lines, with Russia maintaining control over a portion of Ukraine’s territory.
NATO’s shifting dynamics amid global power plays
The prospect of peace talks has accelerated discussions within NATO, as the alliance prepares for what could be a critical phase in the Ukraine war. Western diplomats express concern over Russia’s increasing reliance on external support, including potential involvement from North Korea, which could escalate the conflict’s global stakes. China’s tacit support for Moscow further complicates the strategic landscape, with some officials fearing Ukraine’s battlefront may become entangled in a broader geopolitical struggle.
As Trump’s inauguration nears, the West faces a challenging diplomatic terrain. Allies are navigating uncertain ground, balancing the possibility of a negotiated peace with the need for Ukraine’s continued support. With Russia’s track record in negotiations, many fear that any settlement may merely provide Moscow with a strategic pause, while Kyiv could be left vulnerable to future escalations.
