KARACHI (The Thursday Times) — The State Bank of Pakistan has raised its forecast for workers’ remittances this fiscal year to $45 billion and expects its foreign exchange reserves to climb to $25 billion by June 2027, with Governor Jameel Ahmad saying the country is now “out of the danger zone” on its external account.
Speaking at a press conference in Karachi on the central bank’s latest monetary policy decision, which had rattled the stock market, Ahmad said remittances had stayed resilient in the first quarter of FY27, prompting the bank to lift its full-year estimate from $44 billion.
The SBP’s own reserves stand at $21.5 billion, about three months of import cover, compared with $2.8 billion a few years ago. The bank expects them to reach $23 billion by the end of December and $25 billion by June. Ahmad said the target was “set after accounting for external debt repayments” and other financing needs. The central bank has bought around $30 billion from the market over the past three years.
Exports, imports and growth
The bank projects exports of $32.5 billion to $33 billion and imports of about $71 billion this year, and still sees the current account deficit within its earlier range of zero to one per cent of GDP.
Growth averaged 4.2 per cent in the first three quarters of FY26 but slowed to 3.7 per cent for the full year after a weak final quarter. The SBP kept its FY27 growth projection at 3.5 to 4.5 per cent.
“This outlook, however, remains susceptible to multiple risks,” Ahmad said, pointing to commodity prices, tighter global financial conditions and supply constraints.
Why remittances are rising
The governor said the rise in remittances could not be explained only by more Pakistanis going abroad to work. The number of workers leaving each year peaked at close to 900,000 in 2015 and is now about 840,000. He credited a better exchange rate, less under-invoicing, tighter border controls and reforms of exchange companies for pulling more money into formal channels.
He rejected the view that high interest rates were the main reason exports were growing slowly, citing the cost of doing business, weak demand and global competition instead. Importers no longer need to pay for letters of credit to be confirmed by foreign banks, which used to cost 10 to 12 per cent, he added.
Ahmad also said designs for new currency notes would be finalised soon, with printing arrangements in place, and that the first draw of a Rs16 billion Pakistan Banks’ Association prize scheme for remittance senders is due in January 2027.
