ISLAMABAD (The Thursday Times) — Pakistan is likely to have a warmer-than-normal winter, with temperatures above average across most of the country until January 2027 and normal to above-normal rain in most areas, the Pakistan Meteorological Department said in its seasonal outlook.
The outlook, which covers November, December, and January, says the biggest rise in temperatures is expected in Gilgit-Baltistan, followed by adjoining areas of Kashmir and northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Climate models show a strong likelihood of above-normal temperatures in those regions, the department said.
The warmer conditions could bring some benefits, it said, but they could also raise the risk of smog, fog, dengue, and avalanches in different parts of the country.
More rain in the north
Most of the country is likely to get normal to above-normal rain this winter. The chances of above-normal rain are highest in Gilgit-Baltistan, Kashmir, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and they fall gradually towards northern Punjab and western Balochistan.
Near-normal rain is expected in most of Balochistan, central and southern Punjab, and Sindh. The department noted that normal winter rainfall in the south-east, including Sindh and adjoining parts of Punjab and Balochistan, is already very low.
Above-normal rain in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, northern Punjab, and Azad Kashmir should help farmers sow rain-fed rabi crops on time and support their early growth, the outlook said. In the south-east, near-normal to slightly below-normal rain could mean crops need more irrigation during sowing and early growth, and farmers have been advised to plan canal water supplies accordingly.
Warmer weather in the plains may speed up early crop growth. The risk of frost is expected to be below normal, although cold spells in January could still damage vegetables and other crops that are sensitive to low temperatures.
Smog, fog, and dengue
Near-normal to slightly below-normal rain in central and southern Pakistan, together with calm and stable weather, may increase the risk of smog and fog, particularly in central Punjab in December and January, the department said. It warned that this could worsen air quality, cut visibility, harm respiratory health, and disrupt road and air traffic. Lahore has already been ranked among the world’s most polluted cities this month (read more).
Warmer weather may also allow dengue to keep spreading in humid urban areas of Punjab and Sindh during November, although cases are expected to fall towards December. The department urged stronger mosquito control and the removal of stagnant water, and said fog, smog, and cold nights could increase respiratory illness, particularly among children and elderly people.
Snow and avalanches
In the mountains, above-normal temperatures in Gilgit-Baltistan, northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and Kashmir may delay the build-up of snow at lower elevations, while higher areas are expected to receive their seasonal snow cover gradually. The department warned that changes in winter rain and temperature at high altitudes could make the snowpack unstable and raise the risk of avalanches in some areas.
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s disaster management authority has already declared eight upper districts vulnerable this winter and drawn up a contingency plan (read more).
A dry autumn
Looking back at August to October, the department said rainfall was mostly below normal across the country. Gilgit-Baltistan and Punjab received slightly less rain than usual, while Sindh and Balochistan faced significant shortages. Sindh has ordered a survey of drought damage in Thar, where officials say up to 90% of crops have failed (read more).
Temperatures were above normal in every region over the three months. Balochistan recorded the largest rise above its average, followed by Azad Kashmir.
The outlook is based on the combined results of 10 global climate models. The department said the Indian Ocean Dipole is in a positive phase but is expected to turn neutral at the start of winter, while strong El Niño conditions are expected to continue through the season. It stressed that the outlook gives general trends based on probabilities rather than exact forecasts.
