ISLAMABAD (The Thursday Times) — Pakistan Mehkama-e-Mausmiyat ne apne mausmi paish-e-manzar mein kaha hai ke is saal Pakistan mein mausam-e-sarma maamool se zyada garam rehne ka imkaan hai, January 2027 tak mulk ke beshtar hisson mein darja-e-hararat ausat se zyada rahega aur zyada tar ilaqon mein barishein maamool ke mutabiq ya is se zyada hongi.
November, December aur January ke is paish-e-manzar ke mutabiq darja-e-hararat mein sab se zyada izafa Gilgit-Baltistan mein mutawaqqe hai, jis ke baad Kashmir ke mulhiqa ilaqe aur shumali Khyber Pakhtunkhwa aate hain. Mehkame ke mutabiq mausmiyati models in ilaqon mein maamool se zyada darja-e-hararat ka qawi imkaan zahir karte hain.
Mehkame ne kaha ke garam mausam ke kuch fawaid ho sakte hain, lekin is se mulk ke mukhtalif hisson mein smog, dhund, dengue aur barfani todon ka khatra bhi barh sakta hai.
Shumal mein zyada barishein
Is mausam-e-sarma mein mulk ke beshtar hisson mein maamool ke mutabiq ya is se zyada barish ka imkaan hai. Maamool se zyada barish ke imkanat Gilgit-Baltistan, Kashmir aur Khyber Pakhtunkhwa mein sab se zyada hain, jo shumali Punjab aur maghribi Balochistan ki taraf batadreej kam hote jate hain.
Balochistan ke beshtar hisson, wasti aur janoobi Punjab aur Sindh mein maamool ke qareeb barish mutawaqqe hai. Mehkame ne nishandahi ki ke janoob mashriqi ilaqon, bashmool Sindh aur Punjab o Balochistan ke mulhiqa hisson mein, mausam-e-sarma ki maamool ki barish pehle hi bohat kam hoti hai.
Paish-e-manzar ke mutabiq Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, shumali Punjab aur Azad Kashmir mein maamool se zyada barish se kisanon ko barani rabi faslon ki barwaqt buwai aur ibtidai nashonuma mein madad milegi. Janoob mashriq mein maamool ke qareeb se qadre kam barish ki soorat mein buwai aur ibtidai nashonuma ke dauran faslon ko zyada aabpashi darkar ho sakti hai, aur kisanon ko nehri pani ki farahmi ki mansooba bandi isi hisaab se karne ka mashwara diya gaya hai.
Maidani ilaqon mein garam mausam faslon ki ibtidai nashonuma ko tez kar sakta hai. Paale ka khatra maamool se kam rehne ki tawaqqo hai, taham January mein sardi ki lehrein sabziyon aur sardi se mutasir hone wali deegar faslon ko ab bhi nuqsan pohncha sakti hain.
Smog, dhund aur dengue
Mehkame ke mutabiq wasti aur janoobi Pakistan mein maamool ke qareeb se qadre kam barish aur pursukoon, mustahkam mausam ke baais smog aur dhund ka khatra barh sakta hai, khaas taur par December aur January mein wasti Punjab mein. Mehkame ne khabardar kiya ke is se fiza ka mayaar mazeed kharab ho sakta hai, hadd-e-nigah kam ho sakti hai, saans ki sehat mutasir ho sakti hai aur sadak aur fizai traffic mein khalal par sakta hai. Lahore is maheene pehle hi duniya ke aaloodah tareen shehron mein shumar ho chuka hai (mazeed parhein).
Garam mausam ke baais November ke dauran Punjab aur Sindh ke martoob shehri ilaqon mein dengue ka phailao bhi jari reh sakta hai, taham December ki taraf cases mein kami ki tawaqqo hai. Mehkame ne machharon par qaboo paane ke iqdamat mazboot banane aur khara pani khatam karne par zor diya, aur kaha ke dhund, smog aur sard raatein saans ki bimariyon mein izafa kar sakti hain, khaas taur par bachon aur buzurgon mein.
Barf aur barfani tode
Pahari ilaqon mein Gilgit-Baltistan, shumali Khyber Pakhtunkhwa aur Kashmir mein maamool se zyada darja-e-hararat kam bulandi par barf jamne ke amal mein takheer kar sakta hai, jabke buland ilaqon mein mausmi barf batadreej parne ki tawaqqo hai. Mehkame ne khabardar kiya ke buland ilaqon mein sardiyon ki barish aur darja-e-hararat mein tabdeeli barf ki teh ko ghair mustahkam kar sakti hai aur kuch ilaqon mein barfani tode girne ka khatra barha sakti hai.
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa ki Disaster Management Authority pehle hi soobe ke aath balai azla ko is mausam-e-sarma ke liye hassas qarar de kar hangami mansooba tayyar kar chuki hai (mazeed parhein).
Khushk khizan
August se October ka jaiza lete hue Mehkame ne kaha ke mulk bhar mein barishein zyada tar maamool se kam rahin. Gilgit-Baltistan aur Punjab mein maamool se kuch kam barish hui, jabke Sindh aur Balochistan ko barish ki numayan kami ka saamna raha. Sindh ne Thar mein khushk sali se hone wale nuqsan ke survey ka hukm diya hai, jahan hukkam ke mutabiq 90 feesad tak faslein tabah ho chuki hain (mazeed parhein).
In teen maheenon ke dauran har khitte mein darja-e-hararat maamool se zyada raha. Balochistan mein ausat se sab se zyada izafa record kiya gaya, jis ke baad Azad Kashmir ka number raha.
Yeh paish-e-manzar 10 aalmi mausmiyati models ke mushtarka nataij par mabni hai. Mehkame ne kaha ke Bahr-e-Hind Dipole is waqt musbat marhale mein hai lekin mausam-e-sarma ke aaghaz par is ke ghair janibdar hone ki tawaqqo hai, jabke poore mausam mein El Niño ki mazboot kaifiyat barqarar rehne ka imkaan hai. Mehkame ne zor diya ke yeh paish-e-manzar qatai paish goi ke bajaye imkanat par mabni umoomi rujhanat batata hai.
