MUMBAI (The Thursday Times) — India rupee ka difa karne ke liye aik tezi se mehngi hoti hui koshish mein kai das arab dollar jhonk raha hai aur ghair mamooli market mudakhlat ka sahara le raha hai, taake aisi currency ko bachaya ja sake jo tel ki oonchi qeematon aur sarmayakaron ke sarmaya nikalne ke dabao mein hai, Financial Times ne report kiya.
Reserve Bank of India ne Indian diaspora se jama kiye gaye 140 arab dollar se zyada mein se June se ab tak taqreeban 90 arab dollar rupee ko sahara dene ke liye istemal kiye hain, jin mein spot market mein farokht aur zaid liquidity jazb karne ke liye currency swaps shamil hain, do foreign-exchange bankers ne FT ko bataya. "Unhon ne jarihana andaz apnaya hai," bankers mein se aik ne kaha. RBI ne FT ki tabsire ki darkhwast ka jawab nahin diya.
Asia ki sab se kharab karkardagi wali currencies mein se aik
Is saal rupee Asia ki sab se kharab karkardagi wali currencies mein se aik hai, jo dollar ke muqable mein 5% gir chuka hai. Iran mein jang ke nateeje mein crude ki barhti hui qeematon ne dunya ke sab se bare tel istemal karne walon mein se aik ke liye energy imports ki lagat barha di hai, jabke Indian equities ki record foreign farokht ne currency ki kamzori mein izafa kiya hai.
Jab is maheene rupee nayi kam tareen satah ke qareeb aaya, toh RBI ne utar charhao ko qaboo karne ke liye ghair mutawaqqa iqdamat kiye: sarkari tel companies ki dollar khareedari ko spot market se hata kar jazb karne ke liye khaas window kholi, rupee se munsalik derivative len den ke liye woh hadd kam kar di jin mein bunyadi exposure ka suboot zaroori nahin hota, aur dealers ke liye central bank ke saath forward contracts par 20% cash reserve rakhna lazmi kar diya. Yeh iqdamat pehle ke iqdamat ke ilawa thay, jaise rupee ke khilaf short positions par pabandi aur bairoon-e-mulk muqeem Indians se deposits hasil karne ki koshish.
Guzishta hafte mein rupee 0.7% mazboot hua hai aur Jumerat ko dollar ke muqable mein taqreeban Rs94.5 par trade kar raha tha, jo 6 hafton ki buland tareen satah hai. Ise kisi had tak telecom company Jio Platforms ki public offering se pehle ghair mulki sarmaye ki aamad se sahara mila, jo India ki ab tak ki sab se bari listing hogi.
"Yeh payedar nahin hai"
Bankers aur maeeshat ke mahireen ne FT ko bataya ke RBI maujooda raftar se apne zakhair isi tarah kam nahin karta reh sakta. Sarkari adad-o-shumar ke mutabiq, markazi bank ke zakhair September ke shuru ki 785 arab dollar ki buland tareen satah se taqreeban 60 arab dollar kam ho chuke hain, jabke is ke khalis forward dollar wajibat August mein barh kar 200 arab dollar ho gaye, jo July mein taqreeban 137 arab dollar thay.
"Yeh payedar nahin hai," ANZ Group ke Mumbai mein muqeem maeeshat ke mahir aur foreign exchange strategist Dhiraj Nim ne kaha. "FX zakhair mehdood hain aur forward book ki zimmedariyan bari hain. RBI zakhair ko is hadd tak kam nahin karega ke zakhair ki kifayat tashweesh ka sabab ban jaye."
Nim ne kaha ke markazi bank maeeshi growth ko mumkina nuqsan ki wajah se sood ki sharhein jarihana andaz mein barhane se bhi jhijak raha tha. India ki saal ba saal GDP growth June ke aakhir tak ki timahi mein pichhli timahi ke 8.6% se sust ho kar 7.8% reh gayi. RBI ne is maheene 2023 ke baad pehli baar sood ki sharah mein aik chauthai point izafa kar ke ise 5.5% kar diya, jab September mein mehngai ki raftar barh kar 5.5% ho gayi thi, jo bank ki 6% ki bardasht ki had ke qareeb hai. "Agar currency beqaboo ho jaye toh mazeed jarihana izafon ke imkan ko radd nahin kiya ja sakta," Nim ne kaha, aur yeh bhi kaha ke lagta hai RBI ne Rs97 fi dollar par goya "ret par lakeer kheench di" hai.
"Capital controls nahin"
RBI ke Governor Sanjay Malhotra ne is maheene maqami media se baat karte hue kaha ke markazi bank mustahkam rupee ke liye purazm hai aur kisi makhsoos exchange rate ya band ko hadaf nahin banata. Unhon ne in dawon ko mustarad kar diya ke is maheene ke iqdamat capital controls ke mutaradif hain, aur daleel di ke un ka maqsad yeh yaqeeni banana hai ke currency markets hedging ki haqeeqi zaroorat poori karein, na ke sattebazi ke liye istemal hon.
IMF ke Asia-Pacific director Krishna Srinivasan ne Mumbai mein aik briefing mein kaha ke India ko chahiye ke maujooda oil shock ke khilaf difa ki pehli line ke taur par exchange rate ko harkat karne de. "Malhotra ne bari had tak market ko yeh tai karne dene ke bare mein zyada khul kar aur wazeh baat ki hai ke exchange rate kahan hona chahiye, jabke bank ka kirdar sirf zaroorat se zyada utar charhao ko qaboo mein rakhna hai," Pantheon Macroeconomics mein chief emerging Asia economist Miguel Chanco ne kaha. "Middle East ki jang ke asrat se ab is soch ka yaqeenan imtihan ho raha hai, jo Malhotra ki pehli haqeeqi 'crisis situation' hai."
