ANTALYA (The Thursday Times) — 1.5 degree Celsius ki hadd-e-hararat se tajawuz par Aqwam-e-Muttahida ki ek report tayyar karne wale scientists ne Hafte ko iski saakh ka difa kiya, jab Saudi Arab aur deegar bare taraqqi pazeer mumalik ne iski scientific haisiyat par sawal uthaye aur ise COP31 climate summit ke mutawaqqa markazi siyasi faisle se bahar rakhne ki koshish ki.
Aqwam-e-Muttahida ke mahooliyati programme (UNEP) ki “Limiting Overshoot” report, jo September mein shaya hui, is baat ka jaiza leti hai ke Paris Muahide ke 1.5 degree ke hadaf ki taqreeban yaqeeni khilaf warzi ko kis tarah kam se kam aur mukhtasar se mukhtasar rakha jaye, is hadd ko paar karne ke insanon aur mahooliyati nizamon par kya asraat honge, aur darja-e-hararat ko dobara kaise neeche laya ja sakta hai.
European Union, Bartania, kam tareen taraqqi yafta mumalik aur chhoti jazeera riyasatein un fareeqon mein shamil hain jo chahte hain ke Antalya ka summit hadd se tajawuz se nimatne ko apni tarjeehat mein shamil kare.
Band kamron mein uthaye gaye shakook
Baat cheet se waqif afraad ke mutabiq, is hafte summit ke “cover decision” par band kamre ki mushawarat mein Saudi Arab ki qiyadat mein Arab Group ne yeh daleel de kar report ki saakh par shak daalne ki koshish ki ke iska peer review nahin hua.
Bharat aur China samet Like-Minded Developing Countries ke block ne mutalba kiya ke cover decision mein Aqwam-e-Muttahida ke climate process se bahar tayyar ki gayi reports ka hawala na diya jaye, jise mubassireen ne UNEP report ki janib wazeh ishara samjha. Baaz bari ubharti hui maeeshaton ne yeh bhi kaha ke aisi “grey literature”, yani taleemi jaraid se bahar shaya hone wali tehqeeq, ko matan se bahar rakha jaye. In mein se kai mumalik pehle hi yeh sawal utha chuke the ke kya koi hatmi siyasi faisla hona bhi chahiye.
‘Bairooni mahireen se jaiza liya gaya’
Junoobi Africa ki scientist Debra Roberts, jo pichhle assessment cycle mein Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) ke Working Group II ki co-chair thin aur report ki markazi coordinating team ka hissa thin, ne kaha ke musannifeen ne maujooda science ke aalmi jaize ka miyari tareeqa-e-kaar apnaya jo IPCC ke tareeqon ke mutabiq hai. Unka kehna tha ke farq sirf yeh tha ke hukoomaton ne nataij ka jaiza nahin liya.
Unhon ne kaha, “Musannifeen ne andaruni taur par yaqeenan iska jaiza liya, bairooni peer reviewers ko is amal mein shamil kiya gaya, aur UNEP ne bhi iska jaiza liya.” Duniya bhar ke 44 mahireen ne yeh report likhi, jo zyada tar maujooda tehqeeq ko yakja karti hai, aur mazeed 44 jaiza karon ne ek saal tak iski jaanch ki.
Climate Analytics ke chief executive aur report ke jaiza karon mein shamil Bill Hare ne kaha ke report ko is liye nishana banaya ja raha hai “kyunke kuch logon ko iske nataij pasand nahin”. Unhon ne kaha, “Agar bataur hukoomat aapki maeeshat fossil fuels jalane aur bechne par khari hai to aap aakhri cheez yeh maanna chahenge ke hum 1.5 degree se aage nikal rahe hain, kyunke phir zahir hai aapko nuqsan ki adaigi ki kuch zimmedari bhi leni paregi.”
European Climate Foundation ki chief executive aur Paris Muahide ke memaron mein se ek Laurence Tubiana ne kaha ke report “humein ek aisi sachai batati hai jise kuch log chhupana chahenge”. Unhon ne kaha, “Hum 1.5 degree se tajawuz ki raah par hain, aur yeh hadd kis qadar aur kitni der ke liye paar ho, ise mehdood rakhna hum sab ki baqa ka maamla hai.”
Musannifeen ne yeh bhi nishandahi ki ke deegar grey literature, jin mein UNEP ki Emissions Gap aur Adaptation Gap reports aur International Energy Agency ka kaam shamil hai, IPCC ke jaizon mein mamool ke mutabiq istemal hota hai aur baaz auqat COP ke faislon mein bhi iska hawala diya jata hai. Kam tareen taraqqi yafta mumalik ke Nepali musheer Manjeet Dhakal ne kaha ke overshoot report jame hai aur mumalik ko Antalya mein isi se rehnumai leni chahiye.
Science par wasee tar larai
Yeh tanaza policy sazi mein climate science ke kirdar par jari jharpon ki taaza kari hai. Zyada tar hukoomatein chahti hain ke IPCC apni bari assessment reports climate iqdamaat ke agle aalmi jaize (global stocktake) se pehle mukammal kar le, jise November 2028 tak mukammal hona hai. Saudi Arab, Bharat aur Russia ki qiyadat mein mumalik ke ek chhote group ne iski mukhalifat ki hai aur kaha hai ke yeh timeline taraqqi pazeer mumalik ke scientists aur hukoomaton ke hissa daalne ke liye bohat jaldbazi par mabni hai. Taattul khatam karne ke liye IPCC ka ijlas December ke awail mein online hoga.
Is hafte summit mein jari hone wale ek tracker ke mutabiq maujooda policies duniya ko 2100 tak 2.7 degree hiddat ki janib le ja rahi hain. Hafte ko Antalya mein mahooliyati karkunon ne tez tar iqdamaat ke mutalbe ke saath march kiya, jab wuzara muzakraat ke aakhri marhale ke liye pohanch rahe the. Is hafte muzakraat mein Americi Democrat qanoon sazon ka ek wafd bhi shareek hua. Summit 19 November tak jari rahega.
