ISLAMABAD (The Thursday Times) — Iran ke saath jang mein Pakistan salis ka kirdar ada karta raha hai. Saath hi woh is jang ke khamosh mutasireen mein bhi shamil raha hai. Agar Washington, Islamabad aur Doha ki janib se aage barhaye jane wale muzakrat kisi tasfiye par muntaj hote hain to is ke fawaid chaar jagahon par nazar aayenge: petrol pump par, gas ke nizam mein, Balochistan ki kanon mein aur Khaleej mein kaam karne wale Pakistaniyon ki janib se ghar bheji jane wali raqoom mein.
In mein se koi bhi faida yaqeeni nahin, aur kuch ko aane mein maheene lagenge. Lekin yeh bare fawaid hain, aur yehi wazahat karte hain ke Amreeki Naib Sadr JD Vance ke saath Field Marshal Asim Munir ki taqreeban rozana guftagu koi khairat nahin. Hamsaye mein aman Pakistan ke liye khud jang mein shamil mumalik ke siwa taqreeban kisi bhi mulk se zyada qeemti hai.
Muahide mein Pakistan ka mafad
1. Pump
Pakistaniyon ki zindagi mein jang ka sab se wazeh paimana indhan ki qeemat hai. 3 April ko petrol Rs458.41 aur diesel Rs520.35 fi litre ki buland tareen satah par pahuncha. Is ke baad aalami satah par tail ki qeematein girne ke saath hukumat ne apne qeematon ke formula ke tehat musalsal chaar baar qeemat kam ki. Juma se petrol Rs352.59 aur diesel Rs382.25 fi litre hai.
Fi litre qeemat, rupay
Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority ki qeematein. Tax aur mehsoolat petrol ki fi litre qeemat mein taqreeban Rs114 aur diesel mein Rs100 bante hain.
Aalami qeematon ki simt ka bara inhisar muzakrat par hai. Jab Vance ne 2 November ko kaha ke Washington ne Iran ke saath “kuch pesh raft” ki hai to aik din mein tail 7 feesad se zyada gir gaya. Aabnae Hormuz ko dobara kholne wala tasfiya Khaleej se bheje jane wale har barrel par laga jangi premium khatam kar dega. Muzakrat nakam hue to yeh premium wapas aa jayega.
Kisi bhi kami ka kitna hissa pump tak pahunchega, yeh Islamabad ka faisla hai. Hukumat petrol par taqreeban Rs114 aur diesel par Rs100 fi litre tax aur mehsoolat wasool karti hai, aur 30 din ke aik intezam ke tehat refineriyan Rs15 arab ka bojh utha rahi hain, jis ke baare mein hukumat ka kehna hai ke is se petrol ki qeemat mein Rs14.71 fi litre kami hoti hai. Sasta tail wazarat-e-khazana ko kam qeematon aur zyada aamdani mein se intikhab ka mauqa deta hai. Donon suraton mein mulk ke paas kaam karne ki gunjaish barh jati hai.
2. Gas ka nizam
Gas par jang ka asar zyada sakht raha hai aur zyada der tak rahega. Pakistan apni daramadi maa'i qudrati gas ka zyada tar hissa taweel muddati muahidon ke tehat Qatar se khareedta hai aur use bijli, sanat aur gharon ke liye istemal karta hai. QatarEnergy ne jang shuru hone ke baad se force majeure ka elan kar rakha hai, aur ab Pakistani khareedaron ko bata diya hai ke woh December ke ikhtitam se pehle tarseel nahin karegi. Is tarah Pakistan ko apne markazi supplier ke baghair sardiyon ke urooj ka samna hai.
Pakistan ne jo cargo khud intezam kiye, woh bhi khatre mein rahe. Yakum November ko Pakistan ke liye LNG le jane wale Qatari tanker Al Mayeda par Aabnae Hormuz ke qareeb firing hui, us ke chand ghante baad jab Islamabad se baat cheet ke baad Iran ne use guzarne ki ijazat di thi. Tanker wapas Khaleej mein mur gaya. Pakistani sifarat kari ne is se pehle kai khepon ko ba-hifazat rawan rakha tha, magar is waqiye ne dikhaya ke gunjaish kitni kam hai.
Mulk ki apni bunyadi dhanche ki aik kami is khatre ko barha deti hai: Pakistan ke paas LNG zakheera karne ki koi sahulat nahin, is liye is ki supply poori tarah jahazon ki barwaqt aamad par munhasir hai. Lucky Group aur QatarEnergy ke aik mushtarka mansoobe ki dastbardari ke baad Amreeki hamayat yafta aik group ne Port Qasim par zakheera karne wale tankon aur 1,100km taweel pipeline ke saath $4.4 arab ka terminal banane ki darkhwast di hai. Is mein barson lagenge. Aisi jang bandi jo Qatari cargo ko mamool ke mutabiq safar karne de, isi mausam-e-sarma mein madad degi.
“Hamsaye mein aman Pakistan ke liye khud jang mein shamil mumalik ke siwa taqreeban kisi bhi mulk se zyada qeemti hai.”
3. Kanein
Jang un sarmaya kariyon tak bhi pahunch gayi hai jin ka tawanai se koi taluq nahin. Balochistan mein Reko Diq, jo duniya ke sab se bare ghair taraqqi yafta tanbe aur sone ke zakhair mein se aik hai, ki pehli paidawar do saal moakhar ho kar 2030 tak ja sakti hai. Sarkari zaraye aur sanat se wabasta afraad ke mutabiq is ki wujoohat mein soobe ki security aur hamsaya Iran mein jang donon shamil hain.
Mansoobe ki aadhi milkiyat rakhne wali Canadian company Barrick ne February mein, jis maheene jang shuru hui, nazar-e-sani shuru ki. Taqreeban aik arab dollar ki sarmaya kari ho chuki hai, tamam 700 mustaqil mulazmeen aur taqreeban 2,000 contract karkunon ko barqarar rakha gaya hai, aur mansoobe par maujood afraad ka israr hai ke kaam nahin ruka. Lekin company ke chief executive keh chuke hain ke tameer ka mukammal schedule tay karne se pehle woh “security mein kisi had tak behtari” chahte hain. Balochistan ki Iran ke saath taweel sarhad hai. Hamsaye mein tasfiya soobe ke security masail hal nahin karega, magar takheer ki aik wajah zaroor khatam kar dega.
4. Tarseelat-e-zar ki line
Pakistan ke beroni khaton mein sab se bara adad tail ya gas nahin, balke beroon-e-mulk Pakistaniyon ki janib se ghar bheji jane wali raqam hai. Sirf April mein karkunon ne $3.5 arab bheje, jin mein Saudi Arab taqreeban $842 million aur Muttahida Arab Emarat taqreeban $735 million ke saath sar-e-fehrist rahe. Baqi ka zyada tar hissa Bartania, Europi Union aur America se aaya.
April 2026 mein tarseelat-e-zar, million dollar
State Bank of Pakistan ke aadad-o-shumar. April ka majmooi hajm $3.5 arab raha.
Ab tak yeh bahao hairan kun had tak barqarar raha hai. State Bank ne rawan maali saal ke liye apna takhmeena barha kar $45 arab kar diya hai, aur is ke apne zakhair $21.5 arab se tajawuz kar gaye hain, jo tareekh ki buland tareen satah hai. Saudi Arab ne $3 arab ka deposit roll over kar diya hai. Is istehkam ki bari wajah yeh hai ke Khaleeji maeeshatein jang ke dauran bhi chalti rahi hain.
Khatra kasheedgi barhne mein hai. Saudi Arab par Yemen ke Iran nawaz Houthiyon ke hamle hue hain, aur Khaleej mein tawanai ki tansibat ab bhi nishane par hain. Aik waseeh tar jang jo un shehron tak pahunche jahan Pakistani kaam karte hain, mulk ke zar-e-mubadla ke sab se qabil-e-aitmaad zariye ko khatre mein daal degi. Tasfiya is ka tahaffuz karta hai.
5. Khazana
Yeh charon raste aik hi jagah ja kar khatam hote hain: mulk ke beroni khate. Pakistan ke markazi bank ke zakhair $21.5 arab se tajawuz kar gaye hain, jo is ki tareekh ki buland tareen satah hai, aur wazarat-e-khazana ke mutabiq is daur mein majmooi beroni adaigiyan bhi taqreeban itni hi hain. In ka zyada tar hissa naqd ada karne ke bajaye roll over kiya jata hai. Jis hafte zakhair ke record ka elan hua, usi hafte Saudi Arab ne $3 arab roll over kiye, aur ittilaat ke mutabiq Cheen aur Kuwait ne mazeed $4.3 arab ke saath aisa hi karne ka wada kiya.
Yeh do saal pehle ke muqable mein kahin mazboot position hai, magar is mein jhatkon ki gunjaish kam hai. Tail ka zyada bill, sardiyon ki qeematon par spot LNG ki hangami khareedari ya Khaleeji tarseelat mein kami, yeh sab barah-e-raast isi buffer se niklenge. Tasfiya is ke bar-aks kaam karta hai: sasti indhan daramadat, Qatari cargo ki wapsi par sasti gas, aur Khaleej se mustahkam aamad, yeh sab zakhair kam karne ke bajaye un mein izafa karenge.
Is ka aik maaliyati pehlu bhi hai. Kam aalami qeematein hukumat ko yeh mauqa deti hain ke woh ya to sarifeen ko relief de ya pehle se wasool ki jane wali levy se zyada aamdani hasil kare. Aik aisi maeeshat ke liye jo haal hi mein mustahkam hui hai, intikhab ki yeh gunjaish bazaat-e-khud qeemti hai.
6. Salis ka munafa
Aik kam thos faida bhi hai. Jang ne Pakistan ko aisa mulk bana diya hai jise Washington aur Tehran donon phone karte hain. Makkah muahide ke mumalik Pakistan ki pehal par October mein pehli baar mil kar Iran se mile, aur Riyadh ne apne wafd ko barah-e-raast Pakistani aur Qatari salisi se joda. Is maqam ki qadar is bohran se kahin aage hai, tijarati muzakrat mein, financing mein aur Khaleej mein Pakistan ke saath bartao mein.
Ise barha chadha kar pesh nahin karna chahiye. Wazir-e-Khazana ne $10 arab ki Amreeki financing sahulat ke baare mein, jis ka kabhi bohat charcha tha, tawaqqoat kam karte hue kaha hai ke Pakistan “is ke saath ya is ke baghair aage barhega”. Sifarati saakh apne taur par daramadi bill ada nahin karti. Lekin yeh madad deti hai, aur agar salisi kamyab ho to zyada der qaim rehti hai.
Ab bhi kya ghalat ho sakta hai
Muzakrat ab bhi nazuk hain. Iran ne Hormuz ko dobara kholne ke liye paanch sharait rakhi hain, jin mein haliya Amreeki pabandiyon ka khatma, tail ki chhoot ki bahali, Amreeki fauji maujoodgi mein kami aur naye bahri raston ko tasleem karna shamil hai. Washington yeh qabil-e-tasdeeq ahad chahta hai ke Iran apna jauhari programme dobara tameer nahin karega. Jis hafte Vance ne pesh raft ki baat ki, usi hafte America ne jazeera Qeshm par hamla kiya aur aabnae mein teen tanker barudi surangon se takra gaye.
Donald Trump keh chuke hain ke jang “tab khatam hogi jab main kahunga”. Amreeki hukkam ke mutabiq midterm intikhabat ke nataij ne, jin ka zimmedar Vance ne jang ko thehraya, unhein sifarat kari ko mauqa dene par zyada aamada kar diya hai. Lekin fauj mukhtasar notice par hamle dobara shuru karne ke liye tayyar hai.
Pakistan ke liye hisab ghair mamooli taur par wazeh hai. Jang ka har maheena use pump par aur gas ke nizam mein nuqsan pahunchata hai, is ke sab se bare kan kani mansoobe mein takheer karta hai aur ghair mulki aamdani ke is ke sab se aham zariye ko khatre mein dalta hai. Aman ka har maheena is ke bar-aks karta hai. Yehi wajah hai ke Islamabad mein jari khamosh koshish aham hai, aur mulk ko ise anjam tak pahunchana chahiye.
