Oil price ka girna energy policy nahin

Peer ko tel ki qeemat mein fi barrel taqreeban $9 ki kami hui, agli subah Pakistan mein pump par qeemat neeche aayi, aur aik din ke liye mulk ne saans li. Use chahiye ke is saans ko un khamiyon ko theek karne mein istemal kare jo jang ne samne la di hain, kyunke tel ki mandi mein aik acha din energy policy nahin hota.

Yeh rahat haqeeqi hai, aur khush aaind hai. Peer ko Brent crude $104.77 par band hua, jo 7% se zyada kami hai, jab US ke naib sadr JD Vance ne Iran ke saath "kuch pesh raft" ki baat ki aur Qatar ke salis Tehran wapas pahunche. Pakistan ke regulator ne Mangal se petrol ki qeemat mein Rs3.40 fi litre kami kar ke Rs374.51 aur diesel ki qeemat mein Rs7.76 kami kar ke Rs395.20 kar di. October mein 9.6% par maujood mehngai September ki 10.3% ki satah se neeche hai.

In mein se kisi bhi cheez ko kisi bhi baat ka khatma nahin samajhna chahiye. $104 ka barrel ab bhi mehnga barrel hai. Rs374 fi litre petrol ab bhi mehnatkash khandan ka poora hafta kha jata hai. Aur jo mandiyan ummeed par girti hain woh agle Peer tak mayoosi par charh sakti hain, jaisa ke woh har shakhs jaanta hai jise June mein dastkhat hone wali yaddasht-e-tafheem yaad hai, jo August tak dam tor chuki thi.

Yeh is saal ka pehla sabaq hai, aur aajizi sikhane wala sabaq hai. 2026 mein Pakistani gharanon ke budget par sab se bara asar pani ki aik tang patti ka raha hai jise koi Pakistani ahalkar control nahin karta, aur doosri hukumaton ke darmiyan us bare mein hone wali guftagu ka ke kya jahazon ko wahan se guzarne diya jaye.

Aath maheenon ki qeemat

Dekhiye ke jang pehle hi kya kar chuki hai. Is saal March se July ke darmiyan Pakistan ne petroleum imports par 7 arab 70 crore dollar se 7 arab 90 crore dollar ke darmiyan kharch kiye, jo 2025 ke inhi maheenon ke 6 arab 60 crore dollar se taqreeban panchwein hisse ke baraber zyada hain. Ahalkar aik arse se andaze ke aik usool par chalte aaye hain ke fi barrel qeemat mein har 10 dollar ka izafa jari khate ke khasare mein 1 arab 50 crore dollar se 2 arab dollar tak ka izafa kar deta hai. Aise mulk ke liye jis ne haal hi mein apne zakhair ko sambhala hai, yeh mamooli raqam nahin hain.

Phir woh bill hai jo pump par kabhi nazar nahin aata. Petroleum ke wazir ne Peer ko kaha ke aik bohat bara crude carrier, jo kabhi chand lakh dollar mein mil jata tha, ab 10 lakh dollar mein bhi bamushkil milta hai. Insurance kai guna mehnga ho gaya hai. Refined product par premium, jo bohran se pehle 5 dollar fi barrel tha, 20 dollar ki hadd tak mehdood kar diya gaya. In mein se har lagat aakhir kar fuel ki qeemat, bijli ke tariff, freight charge aur phir aate ki aik bori ki qeemat mein shamil ho jati hai.

Gas is kahani ka khamosh nisf hai. Pakistan ke baaz kharidaron ko bataya gaya hai ke December ke aakhir tak Qatar ki liquefied natural gas nahin milegi, aik force majeureMuahide ki aisi shaq jo supplier ko aise waqiat ki wajah se, jo us ke qaboo se bahar hon, jaise jang, supply dene se mustasna kar deti hai. notice ke teht jis mein musalsal tawseeh ki ja rahi hai, ain us waqt jab sardiyon ki talab aa pahunchti hai. QatarEnergy ne Pakistan ke taweel muddat ke muahidon ki qeemat Brent ke 11.96% par dobara tai karne ki aakhri peshkash ki hai, jis ke badle kam cargoes milein ge. Is peshkash ki khoobiyan jo bhi hon, kisi mulk ko ise is hal mein tolna nahin parna chahiye ke us ki peeth deewar se lagi ho.

Qeematein un logon tak pahunch gayi hain jo pehle hi tang hain. Is maali saal ke pehle chaar maheenon mein mehngai ki ausat sharah 10.05% rahi, jabke pichhle saal inhi maheenon mein yeh 4.79% thi. Tajziya nigaron ka andaza hai ke agar tel $100 aur $110 ke darmiyan raha, jahan woh aaj bhi hai, toh saal bhar mein mehngai ki ausat sharah 9% se zyada rahegi.

Jahan daad banti hai

Hukumat is emergency ko jis tarah sambhal rahi hai, us par munsifana daad ki mustahiq hai. Ministers ka kehna hai ke November ki supplies poori tarah mehfooz hain aur koi qillat aane wali nahin, aur ab tak yeh baat qaim rahi hai. Wazir-e-azam ke fuel relief package se 1 crore 50 lakh se zyada log mustafid hue hain, jis mein motorcyclists, rickshaw malikon aur chhoti gariyon ke drivers ko Rs27 arab ada kiye gaye. Yeh nishane par di gayi imdad hai, aisi imdad jo yeh akhbar zyada dekhna chahega. Pichhle hafta petrol mein Rs15 ka izafa rok kar millions logon ko aik aur jhatke se bachaya gaya.

Pakistan ne qeemat sambhalne se kahin mushkil kaam bhi kiya hai. Woh is jang mein aik markazi wasita raha hai: Field Marshal Asim Munir ne kayi baar Tehran ka safar kiya, aur Islamabad aur Doha ne mil kar June ke memorandum ko tai karwane mein madad di. Bohat kam mulk aik hi hafte mein Washington, Tehran aur Gulf se baat kar sakte hain. Pakistan kar sakta hai, aur agar muzakrat kamyab hui toh is khitte par Pakistan ka qarz hoga.

Lekin sifaratkari energy plan nahin ban sakti, chahe sifaratkar kitne hi mahir kyun na hon. Strait of Hormuz par kisi wasite ko discount nahin milta.

Is mehlat ka kya kiya jaye

Agar deal ho gayi, toh fatah ka elan kar ke aage barh jane ki targhib hogi. Pichhle oil shock ke baad bilkul yehi hua tha, aur us se pehle wale ke baad bhi. Is baar riyasat ko chahiye ke woh is mohlat ko deadline samjhe, aur ise chaar cheezon par sarf kare.

Pehli cheez storage hai. Pakistan ke paas LNG storage bilkul nahin hai, jis ki wajah se us ki supply mukammal taur par import schedules aur aalami qeematon ke rehm-o-karam par hai. US ki hamayat yafta consortium ab Port Qasim par storage ke saath terminal, aur mulk ke andaroni hisson tak pipeline, tameer karne ki koshish mein hai, aur is project ki laagat 4.4 arab dollar tak hai. Is ki sharait par sakhti se parkha jana chahiye, kyunke aise project ke liye pichhla sab se numayan ummeedwar, Lucky Group aur QatarEnergy ka mushtarka karobar, ghair hal shuda policy aur maali masail ka hawala de kar peeche hat gaya tha. Yeh shikayat Islamabad ko kisi bhi tanker rate se zyada fikrmand karni chahiye. Aise mulk mein koi tank nahin banata jis ke qawaid us ke bharne se pehle badal sakte hon. Yehi mantiq oil par bhi laagu hota hai: aik sanjeeda strategic reserve, jo qeematein girne par banaya jaye aur qeematein achanak barhne par istemal kiya jaye, dastiyab sab se sasti insurance hai.

Doosri cheez qeematon ke liye aik zabta hai. Pichhle hafte ki riayat refineries par taqreeban Rs15 arab maheena ka bojh daal kar aayi, jab ke wazir ka istadlal tha ke unhon ne teen maheenon mein barson se zyada kama liya hai. Ho sakta hai woh un ke munafe ke bare mein theek kehte hon. Lekin refinery upgrade aik dehai tak chalne wala dao hai, aur jab bojh news conference ke zariye muntaqil kiya jaye toh sarmayakar gehri nazar rakhte hain. Agar riyasat kisi qeemat ko thaame rakhna chahti hai, toh use batana chahiye ke kaise, kitni muddat ke liye, aur kaun ada karega, aik pehle se shaya kiye gaye formula mein. Nazm-o-zabt ki apni aik qeemat hai. Jo riayat achanak aati hai woh achanak chheen bhi li ja sakti hai.

Teesra petroleum levyWoh tai shuda raqam jo hukumat fuel ke har litre par lagati hai. Yeh wafaqi budget mein jati hai. hai. Is ne April tak ke das maheenon mein Rs1,342 arab jama kiye, aur is maali saal ka hadaf, jo International Monetary Fund ke saath tai hua, Rs1,730 arab hai. Yeh samajhna mushkil nahin ke wazir-e-khazana ise kyun pasand karte hain: yeh aasan hai, is se bachna mumkin nahin, aur yeh bil ada karta hai. Yeh motorcycle par safar karne wale aadmi par bhi woh tax hai, jo Land Cruiser mein baithe aadmi se usi rate par wasool kiya jata hai. Jab tak budget fuel ke sahare chalta rahega, har oil shock do baar chot lagata hai. Is se nikalne ka raasta woh hai jis mein koi chamak damak nahin: un par tax lagana jo is waqt bohat kam ya kuch bhi tax ada nahin karte, taake jab duniya hamare khilaf ho jaye toh aaindah hukumat ke paas levy kam karne ki gunjaish ho.

Chautha woh darwaza hai jo Pakistani apne liye pehle hi khol chuke hain. Kisi wazarat ki khaas madad ke baghair, gharanon aur karobari idaron ne solar panels aise paimane par khareede jis ne sab ko, bijli ki companies samet, hairan kar diya; sirf 2024 mein taqreeban 17 gigawatt import kiye gaye. Har chhat Strait of Hormuz se aik chhota sa pichhe hatna hai. Riyasat ki jibillat bohat aksar yeh rahi hai ke ise grid ki maali surat-e-haal ke liye khatra samjha jaye, aur is surat-e-haal par tawajjoh dena waqai zaroori hai. Behtar jibillat yeh hoti ke ise mulk ka ab tak ka sab se bara energy-security programme samjha jaye, aur yehi soch transport tak barhai jaye, jahan jin motorcycles ko aaj fuel mein riayat milti hai, woh kal bijli par chal rahi ho sakti hain. Petrol ki subsidy us din khatm ho jati hai jis din paisa nahin rehta. Electric motorcycle aik dahai tak imports bachati rehti hai.

Imtihan yeh hai ke agar yeh kaam kar jaye toh kya hoga

Yeh bilkul mumkin hai ke muzakrat nakam ho jayein. Peer ko tel ki qeemat mein kami ke chand ghante baad, US ke ahalkaron ne kaha ke US fauj ne Iran ke Qeshm Island par hamla kiya, jo kai khamosh aur mehdood hamlon mein se taza tareen hai, aur yeh ke khaleeji riyasaton se kaha gaya hai ke woh midterms ke baad aik mukhtasar aur shadeed karwai ke liye tayyar rahein. Kaha jata hai ke Israel ke wazir-e-azam mazeed hamlon ke liye dabao daal rahe hain, Irani wazir-e-kharja ka kehna hai ke sab kuch Washington ki "siyasi maqooliyat" par munhasir hai, aur abhi isi hafta bhi aabnaye mein tankers ke jalne ki khabrein aayin. Agar tel dobara $120 par chala gaya, toh kisi ko yeh qaail karne ki zaroorat nahin hogi ke Pakistan ko tawanai ka masla darpesh hai.

Asal imtihan is ki ulti soorat mein hai. Farz karein aabnaye do din mein dobara khul jaye, jaisa ke Iran ka kehna hai ke aisa ho sakta hai. Farz karein tel $80 par aa jaye, rupee mazboot ho, mehngai kam ho aur eendhan mein riayat ka package khamoshi se khatm ho jaye. Yahi woh lamha hoga jab har wazarat ko kuch zyada zaroori kaam mil jayega, aur storage, reserves, qeemton ke qawaid aur levy agle saal ki file mein wapas chale jayenge. Aath maheenon ki jang ne hamein kuch nahin sikhaya hoga.

Pakistan ne us kamre mein apni jagah haasil ki hai jahan yeh jang khatm ho sakti hai. Woh ghar mein bhi isi sanjeedagi ka haqdar hai. Peer ko tel ki qeemat mein kami door ke waqiat ka tohfa thi. Mulk is ka kya karta hai, yehi is kahani ka wahid hissa hai jo poori tarah us ke apne haathon mein hai.