DUBAI (The Thursday Times) — Budh se Jumma ke darmiyan Iran ki musallah afwaj ne kaha ke unhon ne Aabnaye Hormuz aur us ke atraaf mein chhe jahazon ko nakara bana diya, aik Amreeki drone maar giraya aur Bahrain mein aik Amreeki radar tabah kar diya. In chhe jahazon mein se aik ka bhi naam saamne nahin aaya. Amreeka ka kehna hai ke radar ko kabhi nishana nahin banaya gaya, aur Bahrain ki janib bheje gaye dono Irani drone baghair koi nuqsan pohanchaye maar giraye gaye. Is hafte nishana banne wala wahid tanker jis ka naam, amla aur maqam awami tor par maloom hai, yani Liberia ke parcham wala Dominica Prosperity, Iran ke daawe wale jahazon mein shamil nahin tha. Jo kaha ja raha hai aur jo dikhaya ja sakta hai, un ke darmiyan yahi khala ab tail ki qeematon, insurance premium aur Khaleej se tail khareedne wale har mulk ke eendhan ke bill ko mutasir karne wala aik bara unsur ban chuka hai, jin mein Pakistan bhi shamil hai.
Daawon ke artalees ghante
Yeh rujhan tarteeb se dekha jaye to zyada wazeh hota hai. Har Irani bayan sarkari media ya Pasdaran-e-Inqilab ke qareeb samjhi jane wali khabar rasan agencies ke zariye saamne aaya. Har bayan mein aise jahazon ka zikr tha jinhon ne intebahaat nazarandaz kiye, apne navigation system band kar diye, ya aisa rasta istemal kiya jise Tehran mamnoo qarar de chuka hai. Taqreeban kisi bhi daawe ki tasdeeq mumkin nahin thi.
Kya daawa kiya gaya, aur kis baat ki tasdeeq hui
Budh: aik tanker "mamnooa ilaqe" mein barudi surang se takraya
Irani fauj ka daawa. Kisi jahaz ka naam nahin bataya gaya. Bartania ke bahri idare ne aabnaye mein aik tanker se mutaliq waqia darj kiya, taham amle ki halat maloom nahin.
Budh ki raat: chalees lakh barrel le jane wale do super tanker nakara
Pasdaran-e-Inqilab ka daawa. Na naam, na malikan, na parcham. Azadana tasdeeq nahin ho saki.
Budh: Dominica Prosperity Ras Al Khaimah ke qareeb nishana bana
Tasdeeq shuda. Bharat ke wazir-e-jahaz rani ne naam bataya; bahri idaron ne ittila di; amle ke tamam 22 arkaan ko nikal liya gaya. Kisi ne nahin bataya ke fire kis ne kiya.
Jumeraat: aabnaye ke mashriq mein mazeed do tanker barudi surangon se takraye
Irani fauj ka daawa. Na naam, na parcham, na cargo; koi azadana tasdeeq nahin.
Jumma: Bahrain mein aik Amreeki radar tabah
Tardeed. Amreeki Central Command ka kehna hai ke do drone maar giraye gaye, aur "na koi zakhmi hua, na koi nuqsan".
Jumma: aik Amreeki drone maar giraya gaya aur aik gas bardar jahaz barudi surang ki zad mein aaya
Irani bahriya aur Pasdaran ki bahriya ka daawa. Gas bardar jahaz ka naam nahin bataya gaya. Kisi bhi daawe ki tasdeeq nahin ho saki.
Zaraye: Irani sarkari media; UK Maritime Trade Operations; Bharat ki wazarat-e-jahaz rani; Amreeki Central Command.
Is ka matlab yeh nahin ke har Irani daawa jhoota hai. Is maheene jahazon ko nishana banaya gaya hai, aur buri tarah. Bahri nigrani karne wale idaron ne November ke pehle gyarah dinon mein aabnaye aur us ke qareeb jahazon par kam az kam 37 hamle shumar kiye, jo 28 February ko jung shuru hone ke baad kisi bhi maheene mein sab se zyada hain. International Maritime Organization ne 11 November tak khitte mein 134 tasdeeq shuda waqiaat darj kiye the, jin mein 25 mallah halak hue. Mangal ko ADNOC ke zer-e-intezam aik jahaz Mutahida Arab Emarat ki apni samandari hudood ke andar aik hamle mein mutasir hua, jis ki company ne tasdeeq ki. Khatra haqeeqi hai. Shak tafseel par hai, aur aik aisi jung mein jo juzwi tor par is baat par lari ja rahi hai ke aabi guzargah par kis ka control hai, tafseel hi asal nukta hai.
Aabnaye Hormuz mein kisi daawe ka mandi par asar dalne ke liye sach hona zaroori nahin. Bas us ka qabil-e-yaqeen hona kaafi hai.
Daawe phir bhi kyun kaargar hain
Iran ke bayanat ka maqsad yeh sabit karna kam hai ke kya hua, aur yeh tay karna zyada ke jahazon ke malikan aage kya karein. Tehran kehta hai ke jahaz sirf us ke manzoor shuda raaste istemal karein, aur us ke security sarbarah Mohsen Rezaei keh chuke hain ke jab tak Washington saat sharait poori nahin karta, aabnaye band rahegi. "Ghair mujaz raaste" par jalte tanker ki har khabar captainon, malikan aur beema karon ko yeh paigham deti hai ke junoobi raaste par Amreeki hifazati dasta tahaffuz ki zamanat nahin. Jumeraat ko fauj ke bayan ne yeh baat khul kar kahi, aur zimmedari pehle Sadr Donald Trump par aur phir un malikan par daali jinhon ne us ke baqaul Trump ke "gumrah kun bayanat" par bharosa kiya.
Tijarati duniya saboot ka intezar nahin kar sakti. Is hafte kisi safar ka beema tay karne wale ko chaar nakara tankeron ke ghair musaddiqa daawe ko aik panchwein tanker par tasdeeq shuda hamle ke saath tolna parta hai, aur sab se sasta faisla yahi hai ke poore ilaqe ko khatarnak samjha jaye. Yahi wajah hai ke jis bayan ki koi tasdeeq nahin kar sakta, woh bhi premium barhata hai, rawangiyan moakhar karta hai aur Khaleej mein lade jane wale har barrel par khatre ka izafi margin daal deta hai. Jumeraat ko Brent khaam tail taqreeban 93 dollar fi barrel par raha aur pehle ki kami ke baad kuch oopar gaya, kyunke khitte ki kasheedgi ne doosri jagahon par barhti paidawar ka asar zaail kar diya.
Washington doosri taraf se yahi khel khelta hai. Amreeka ka kehna hai ke us ne aabnaye ko barudi surangon se saaf kar diya hai, isi liye barudi surangon se takrane ki Irani khabrein itni maani khez hain. Wazir-e-Kharja Marco Rubio ne is hafte kaha ke Iran ke khilaf "muashi muhim" itni tabah kun hai ke bari jung ki zaroorat nahin. Jumeraat ko Trump ne likha ke Washington ko ab Iran se muahide ki zaroorat nahin kyunke us ke paas pehle hi Iran ka paisa aur "un ki aabnaye" hai. Har fareeq jahaz rani companiyon ko yeh bata raha hai ke guzarne ki sharait woh tay karta hai, doosra nahin.
Amalan khitte se teen qism ki maloomat saamne aa rahi hain. Pehli, aik namzad jahaz, jis ka parcham, amla aur maqam maloom ho, aur jis ki ittila koi hukoomat ya bahri idara de jise is ka jawab dena ho. Doosri, jung ke kisi fareeq ka bayan, jo sach bhi ho sakta hai, juzwi tor par sach bhi, ya ghara hua bhi. Teesri, kisi daawe ke baad ki khamoshi, jo aksar sab se zyada maani khez hoti hai. Jab bees lakh barrel le jane wala koi super tanker waqai nakara ho jaye to us ka malik, beema kar aur parcham wala mulk umooman chand ghanton mein bata dete hain. Jab koi kuch bhi na kahe to woh khamoshi bhi aik ittila hai.
Kis baat ki waqai tasdeeq ho sakti hai
Aik mohtat qari chand saada sawalat pooch sakta hai. Kya jahaz ka naam bataya gaya hai? Kya UKMTOUK Maritime Trade Operations, Bartanvi bahriya ka aik markaz jo Mashriq-e-Wusta aur qareebi samandaron mein tijarati jahazon se mutaliq waqiaat ki ittilaat jama aur shaya karta hai., kisi parcham wale mulk, bandargah ki intezamiya ya malik ne is ki tasdeeq ki hai? Kya jung mein koi mafad na rakhne wale kisi fareeq ne nuqsan, zakhmiyon ya aaloodgi ki ittila di hai? In paimanon par is hafte ka tasdeeq shuda record mukhtasar hai: Ras Al Khaimah ke qareeb Dominica Prosperity, Mangal ko aik projectile ka nishana banne wala super tanker Fujairah Energy jis ke amle ke chaar afraad zakhmi hue, mumkina hamle ka shikar Saudi parcham wala NCC Fajr, aur ADNOC ka jahaz. In chaaron ki tasdeeq aise logon ne ki jinhein is par apna naam dena para.
Yahi ehtiyat samandar se bahar bhi lazim hai. Jumma ko Aqwam-e-Muttahida ke jauhari nigran idare ne aik khufiya report mein kaha ke Iran ke jauhari mawad ke baare mein us ke paas maloomat ki kami "phailao ke hawale se sangeen tashweesh ka maamla" hai. Idare ne kaha ke us ne Isfahan ke qareeb us zer-e-zameen afzoodgi plant ka kabhi muaina nahin kiya jis ka Iran ne pichhle saal elaan kiya tha, taham us ne yeh nahin kaha ke wahan afzoodgi ho rahi hai. Iran ka kehna hai ke jab tak Amreeka use dhamkiyan de raha hai, muaina kaar wapas nahin aa sakte. Doosre lafzon mein, idare ki yeh la-ilmi ab khud aik haqeeqat hai jise dono fareeq istemal karenge.
Israel mein nigran wazir-e-azam Benjamin Netanyahu ne Jumeraat ko agli hukoomat banane ki koshish karne wale Gadi Eisenkot ko do ghante ki security briefing di, jab Iran par dobara hamle ke sawal par ikhtilaf khul kar saamne aa gaya. Amreeki Central Command ne un khabron ko "mahz qiyas arai" qarar diya ke us ne Israel ko nayi jung ki tayyari ke liye kaha hai. Mazeed junoob mein, Yemen ke Houthiyon ne kaha ke unhon ne Saudi Arab ki East-West pipeline ke aik pumping station ko nishana banaya, jo band aabnaye ke mutabadil ke tor par rozana taqreeban chalees lakh barrel khaam tail muntaqil kar rahi hai. Riyadh ne is ki tasdeeq nahin ki, taham Saudi wazarat-e-tawanai ne kaha ke Peer ke aik hamle se mehdood aag lagi jo jald bujha di gayi. Aden mein fauji hukkam ka kehna hai ke Houthiyon ki shehar ke kinare tak pesh qadmi ke saath hi sarkari forces morcha band ho rahi hain.
Aabnaye paanch adaad mein
Zaraye: bahri nigrani ke idare; International Maritime Organization; Saudi hukkam; market data.
Pakistan ke liye is ka matlab
Pakistan ke liye daawon ki yeh jung koi nazri behas nahin. Us ka zyada tar eendhan aur maaya qudrati gas samandar ke raaste Khaleej se aati hai, aur hukoomat July se eendhan ki qeematon ka jaiza hafta war ke bajaye rozana le rahi hai kyunke mandi bohat tezi se badalti hai. Is hafte, khilaf-e-mamool, yeh tabdeeli Pakistan ke haq mein rahi. Teen din mein petrol ki qeemat teen baar kam ki gayi, aur saath diesel ki bhi.
Is hafte fi litre qeemat (Rs)
11, 12 aur 13 November ko teen katautiyon ke baad. Zariya: Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority.
Yeh relief nazuk hai. Petrol ke liye Rs332 aur diesel ke liye Rs360 tak taaza tareen katauti aik aisi aalmi mandi ki akkasi karti hai jo pehle hi kaafi khatra qeematon mein shamil kar chuki hai. Kisi bare tanker par aik tasdeeq shuda hamla, ya koi aik Irani daawa jis par mandi yaqeen kar le, chand dinon mein ise ulat sakta hai. Diesel barah-e-raast maal bardari, buson ke kirayon aur khorak ki qeematon par asar dalta hai, is liye aabnaye ki afwahein Pakistani bawarchi khanon tak us ke tankeron ke Karachi pohanchne se pehle pohanch jati hain.
Pakistan kuch tahaffuz bana raha hai. Is hafte Pakistan State Oil ne kaha ke Kuwait diesel aur jet fuel ki faraahmi jaari rakhega, aur Kuwait Petroleum Corporation hukoomat ki nazar-e-sani shuda Customs Bonded Storage PolicyIs saal manzoor ki gayi aik policy jo ghair mulki suppliers ko petroleum masnoaat Pakistan mein customs bonded godamon mein rakhne, aur phir unhein maqami tor par farokht karne ya khitte ko dobara baramad karne ki ijazat deti hai. ke tehat Pakistani zakheera gaahein aur bandargahein istemal karegi. Yeh policy is saal aabnaye mein rukawaton ke baad banayi gayi. Kisi khatre se pehle Pakistan mein zakheera kiya gaya eendhan us eendhan se zyada qeemti hai jo khatre ke dauran khareeda jaye, aur khitte ke liye zakheere ke aik markaz ka kirdar Pakistan ko us aman mein hissa dar banata hai jis mein us ke hamsaye bhi shareek hain.
Pakistan Islamabad se kisi tanker mein lagi aag ki tasdeeq nahin kar sakta. Magar woh yeh yaqeeni bana sakta hai ke aisi koi aag us ke pump khali na kar de.
Khaleej Pakistan ke bill bhi ada karti hai. Beroon-e-mulk Pakistaniyon ne October mein 3.89 arab dollar watan bheje, jin mein se sirf Saudi Arab aur Mutahida Arab Emarat ka hissa 1.8 arab dollar tha. Lakhon Pakistani karkun un drones aur missiles ki pohanch mein rehte hain jin ke ab daawe aur tardeedein ho rahi hain. Khaleej ke Arab kinare par aik wasee tar jung, jis ki taraf Houthiyon ke daawe aur Aden ke qareeb laraai ishara karte hain, un ki salamati aur in tarseelat-e-zar dono ko khatre mein daal degi.
Shor bhari jung mein aik mutawazin awaz
Is hafte Pakistan ka apna mauqif mustaqil aur wazeh raha hai. Jumeraat ko Aqwam-e-Muttahida ki Salamti Council mein us ne Houthiyon par pabandiyon ki tajdeed karne wali Qarardad 2837 ke haq mein vote diya, aur us ke mustaqil mandoob Safeer Syed Haider Shah ne Saudi Arab par Houthiyon ke hamlon ko "dehshatgard hamle" qarar dete hue un ki muzammat ki aur mumlikat ko Pakistan ki "mukammal aur ghair mutazalzal yakjehti" ka yaqeen dilaya. Yeh mauqif us kirdar ke saath saath hai jo Pakistan ne is saal ke shuru mein ada kiya, jab us ne Washington aur Tehran ke darmiyan muzakraat ki mezbani ki jin ke nateeje mein June ki yaaddasht saamne aayi.
Yeh dono kirdar aik doosre se mutasadim nahin. Apni sarzameen par hamlon ke khilaf Saudi Arab ke saath mazbooti se khare hona, aur saath hi woh rabte khule rakhna jo Pakistan ko Washington aur Tehran dono se baat karne dete hain, yahi Islamabad ko teenon ke liye mufeed banata hai. Aik aisi jung mein jahan har fareeq ke bayanat mandiyon ko hilane aur jahazon ke malikan ko khaufzada karne ke liye tayyar kiye jate hain, jo mulk sirf usi baat par qaim rahe jis ki woh tasdeeq kar sakta hai, aur saaf bataye ke woh kis cheez ki mukhalifat karta hai, us ki saakh ki aik qadr hai.
Jin jahazon ke naam bataye ja sakte hain, wahi haqeeqi sabit hue.
Kin baaton par nazar rakhein
Pehla imtihan naam hain. Agar un chhe jahazon mein se, jinhein Iran is hafte nakara banane ka daawa karta hai, kisi aik ki shanakht bhi koi malik, beema kar ya parcham wala mulk kar de to record badal jayega, aur us ke saath khatre ki qeemat bhi. Agar kisi ki shanakht na hui to daawon ki ahmiyat kam hone lagegi.
Doosra imtihan Amreeki hifazati dasta hai. Iran ke bayanat junoobi raaste ko ghair mehfooz dikhane ke liye tayyar kiye jate hain. Dekhna yeh hai ke jahazon ke malikan use istemal karte rehte hain ya nahin, aur beema kar unhein coverage dete rehte hain ya nahin.
Teesra imtihan Pakistan ka eendhan ka bill hai. Teen din mein teen katautiyan khush aaind hain. Yeh barqarar rehti hain ya nahin, is ka inhisar is par kam hai ke Tehran aur Washington kya kehte hain, aur is par zyada ke azad zaraye kis baat ki tasdeeq kar sakte hain.
